Texas is experiencing another summer of weather whiplash: destructive rainfall and flooding followed by dangerous heat, with Tropical Storm Bertha now moving across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Bertha is currently barreling toward Texas. As of Tuesday morning, the storm was moving northwest with sustained winds of 50 mph. Forecasters expect it to approach Louisiana before weakening. Its remnants could bring rain, high surf and rip currents to parts of coastal Texas. The forecast remains subject to change. Check the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates.
Meanwhile, a strengthening El Niño could influence Texas weather for months. El Niño develops when waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm, altering atmospheric circulation around the world.
“Super El Niño” is an informal term generally used for an exceptionally strong event, often when temperatures in a key Pacific monitoring region rise about 2 degrees Celsius above normal. NOAA says there is an 81% chance the current El Niño will become “very strong” between October and December, potentially ranking among the largest since reliable records began in 1950. It has a 97% chance of continuing into early spring 2027, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
For South and Central Texas, El Niño historically tilts the odds toward wetter and cooler conditions during fall and winter because it strengthens the southern branch of the jet stream. That could help drought-stricken reservoirs and aquifers, but repeated storms could also increase flood risks. El Niño does not determine individual storms, however, and even powerful events do not produce expected conditions everywhere.
No single event proves climate change, and scientists would need an attribution study to measure its role in a particular disaster. But the broader pattern is consistent with established climate science: a warmer atmosphere intensifies heat waves and can hold more moisture, increasing the potential for heavier rainfall.
Guests:
Sylvia Dee, Ph.D. is a professor and climate scientist at Rice University specializing in climate change and the past, present, and future of Earth’s hydrological cycle.
Johnna Infanti is a meteorologist at NOAA/NWS/Climate Prediction Center,
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