Russia rolled its tanks into Ukraine in February 2022. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin called it a “10-day Special Military Operation.” But because of the resiliency of the people of Ukraine along with international support the unprovoked invasion continues to grind away.
But there are mounting signs that the stalemate is about to give-way to a humiliating loss for Putin. Russia is losing tanks and infantry at an unsustainable rate. Ukraine, while it has a much smaller population than Russia, is being bolstered by the democracies of the world. In addition, Ukrainian inventiveness with low-cost armed Kamikaze First Person View (FPV) drones has not only given them an upper hand but also reinvented modern-day warfare.
Since the onset of the Ukraine war, international economic sanctions have significantly impacted Russia, aiming to cripple its economy and limit its war capabilities. These sanctions, led by the United States, the European Union, and other Western nations, targeted key sectors such as finance, energy, defense, and technology.
Financial sanctions have isolated Russia from global markets. Major Russian banks were cut off from the SWIFT international payment system, impeding their ability to conduct international transactions. This has led to a severe devaluation of the Russian ruble, inflation, and a steep rise in the cost of living for ordinary Russians.
Energy sanctions, particularly the embargo on Russian oil and gas exports, have targeted Russia's economic lifeline. While Europe has sought to reduce its dependency on Russian energy, Russia has struggled to find alternative markets. This has resulted in significant revenue losses, straining the national budget and limiting funds available for military expenditure.
Sanctions on technology and defense sectors have restricted Russia's access to critical components and advanced technologies, hampering its military modernization efforts and industrial capabilities. The exodus of multinational corporations from Russia has further exacerbated economic isolation and loss of expertise.
The long-term consequences of these sanctions continue to erode Russia's economic stability and its ability to sustain prolonged military engagements.
A Russian victory in the Ukraine war poses significant risks to the European Union (EU) and the broader Western alliance. It would embolden Russia, reinforcing Vladimir Putin’s aggressive foreign policy and potentially encouraging further territorial ambitions in Eastern Europe. This could destabilize neighboring countries like the Baltic states and Poland, which are NATO members, potentially drawing the alliance into direct conflict with Russia.
A victorious Russia could undermine the credibility and unity of the EU and NATO. It would signal the failure of Western diplomatic and military support to Ukraine, possibly weakening the resolve of these institutions in future conflicts. The resultant fragmentation within the EU could lead to political instability, economic uncertainty, and a loss of influence on the global stage.
Moreover, a win for Russia would likely embolden other authoritarian regimes, undermining democratic values and international law. This could lead to a more unstable and divided world, where aggression and coercion become accepted tools of statecraft, posing long-term threats to global peace and security.
Guest:
Ambassador Francis Rooney represented Florida’s 19th Congressional District in the United States House of Representatives from 2017 to 2021. From 2005 to 2008 he served as the United States Ambassador to the Holy See, appointed by President George W. Bush and subsequently wrote a book about diplomacy and the US-Holy See relationship titled The Global Vatican.
"The Source" is a live call-in program airing Mondays through Thursdays from 12-1 p.m. Leave a message before the program at (210) 615-8982. During the live show, call 833-877-8255, email thesource@tpr.org.
This interview will be recorded on Tuesday, June 25, 2024.
