The issue of global depopulation is emerging as a pressing demographic concern. Unlike the past century, when there was an almost panic of overpopulation and questions of mass scarcity dominated global discourse, many countries are now facing the opposite problem: shrinking populations.
Depopulation typically results from a sustained decline in birth rates coupled with aging populations. In developed countries such as Japan, Italy, and South Korea, fertility rates have fallen well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
The reasons are being debated but experts blame urbanization, rising living costs, delayed marriage, better health care and changing cultural norms around family life. As a result, these nations are now grappling with population decline, labor shortages, and the economic burdens of a growing elderly population.
This creates an alarming set of problems. Economically, a shrinking workforce undermines productivity, slows economic growth, and strains public pension and healthcare systems. Fewer workers must support more retirees, leading to fiscal imbalances and potential social unrest. For example, Japan’s aging society has already resulted in stagnant GDP growth and mounting debt, while South Korea is predicted to see its population halved by the end of the century if current trends continue.
Socially, depopulation can lead to the erosion of communities and cultural continuity. Rural areas are especially vulnerable, as young people migrate to urban centers or forgo having children. Schools and local businesses close, and once-thriving towns face extinction. In some countries, such as China, the long-term effects of policies like the one-child rule are only now becoming fully visible, with millions of men unable to find partners and a rapidly aging populace.
Geopolitically, depopulation can alter the global balance of power. Countries with declining populations may lose influence, military capability, and innovation capacity, while nations with younger, growing populations may gain prominence. Russia and Eastern Europe, for instance, are facing serious national security challenges due to workforce depletion and demographic decline.
Russia is dealing with even more shocks to its population trend caused by its invasion of Ukraine. Over a million young men have died and nearly as many have fled the country to avoid conscription. So that’s one governmental policy that could help avoid depopulation —avoid a prolonged unnecessary war.
Addressing depopulation will require comprehensive policies that support family formation, reduce barriers to child-rearing, and manage immigration strategically. Solutions may include affordable childcare, paid family leave, housing subsidies, and integrating migrants into labor markets.
Guest:
Dr. Michael Geruso is the co-author with Dean Spears of After the Spike: Population, Progress, and the Case for People.
He is a faculty Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and holds three bachelor’s degrees from Virginia Tech (engineering, political science, and philosophy) and a PhD in Economics from Princeton. He completed postdoctoral work at Harvard prior to joining the faculty at the University of Texas at Austin in 2014. Since 2014, he has served on the board of the Research Institute of Compassionate Economics (r.i.c.e.).
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This episode will be recorded on Tuesday, July 15, 2025.
