As more Americans walk away from the country’s two major parties, a growing share of voters say they’re choosing “independent” or declining to affiliate at all.
A new Gallup analysis found that 45% of U.S. adults identified as independents in 2025—an all-time high in its tracking, and well above the sub-40% levels typical before the 2010s.
Registration data points the same direction. An NBC News analysis of voter rolls across dozens of states found unaffiliated voters now make up about 32% of registered voters, up from 23% in 2000 — growth driven heavily by younger voters and increasingly diverse communities.
But independence comes with a catch: in much of the country, the most consequential election is the party primary, where nominees are chosen before the November general election. In “closed” primaries, voters can participate only if they’re registered with that party—meaning independents can be shut out of the decision that effectively determines who appears on the ballot. The rules vary widely by state, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Political scientists say that dynamic can pull politics toward the edges. When primary electorates are smaller and more partisan than the broader public, candidates have incentives to cater to highly motivated party loyalists rather than the middle —leaving independents as political “orphans,” with few meaningful choices between nominees shaped by the base.
Parties argue primaries are private nomination contests and that membership should matter. That view is gaining ground in some places: in West Virginia, state Republicans recently reaffirmed plans to require voters to register with the GOP to participate in the May 2026 primary.
In Texas, that “orphan” problem is colliding with an intensifying push by Republican Party of Texas leaders to shut independents out of GOP nominations altogether. Texas is one of the states that effectively runs an open primary system: voters don’t register by party, and “affiliation” is typically established by participating in a party primary rather than by declaring membership up front.
Supporters of closing the primary argue that system leaves Republican nominations vulnerable to strategic “crossover” voting by Democrats and unaffiliated voters.
That argument has moved from party rhetoric into the courts. In late 2025, the state GOP filed a federal lawsuit seeking to invalidate parts of the Election Code that allow any eligible voter to participate in a party primary, framing the dispute as a First Amendment “freedom of association” issue.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton backed the party’s position, declining to defend the existing law and urging the court to allow Republicans to limit participation to voters who have taken steps to affiliate with the party.
State election officials have pushed back, warning that a court-ordered shift could be disruptive—especially without a party-registration system already in place. Jane Nelson, the secretary of state, has argued that a change this significant should come from lawmakers rather than judges, in part because it would require new procedures for voters and new administrative burdens for counties
Elsewhere, reformers are pushing the opposite direction. New Mexico enacted a new law allowing unaffiliated voters to take part in major-party primaries without changing their registration—an approach supporters say broadens participation without forcing voters into a partisan label.
Guest:
Corbin Trent is a progressive Democratic strategist and the former Communications Director for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,
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This episode will be recorded on Monday, February 2, 2026, at 12:00 p.m.
