Political polls are not predictions. They are snapshots of what voters are thinking during the window of the survey.
Nevertheless, with less than two weeks until the Nov. 3 midterm elections, political polls suggest Democrats could be headed for significant victories. And many Democrats are nervously crossing their fingers in hope that these polls are correct.
Meanwhile, Republicans argue the potential voter surveys are misleading, corrupt or even fake.
Brendan Carr, the Trump-appointed leader of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), threatened TV broadcasters not to report on data that shows Republican candidates that are behind in the polls.
This raises a familiar question: How much confidence should the public place in election polling?
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are locked in an unusually competitive U.S. Senate race. An October University of Houston survey gives Talarico a 48% to 46% advantage. Other recent polls show similarly narrow margins, while some put Paxton slightly ahead or find the candidates tied.
An October Reuters/Ipsos survey found Democrats leading Republicans by 12 percentage points on the generic congressional ballot. Meanwhile, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted additional House races toward Democrats, including contests in traditionally Republican states.
The possibility of Democrats winning congressional districts Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024 has fueled speculation about a historic blue wave.
But polling experts urge caution.
Surveys measure voter preferences at a particular moment, not election outcomes. Even a statistically sound poll can misjudge which voters will actually turn out.
Republicans have reason to question polling accuracy. Surveys underestimated Republican support in the 2016, 2020 and, to a lesser extent, 2024 presidential elections.
Researchers have identified difficulties reaching Republican voters and correcting for differences between people who answer surveys and those who don't.
Guests:
Charles "Sean" Briscoe is a Democratic political consultant and the founder of CLSB Politics.
Lee M. Miringoff is the director of the Marist University Institute for Public Opinion.
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This interview will be recorded live Thursday, October 22, 2026, at 12:00 p.m.
