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Rising U.S.–Venezuela tensions spark fears of war

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Venezuelan military walk down the street
Venezuelan military walk down the street

The U.S. has directed several naval vessels to the Caribbean near Venezuela as part of "Operation Southern Spear," a military buildup to combat drug trafficking and transnational criminal organizations. The operation includes the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford and escort ships, along with other warships.

U.S. forces have reportedly bombed at least seven boats suspected of transporting drugs, resulting in more than 30 deaths—actions critics say amount to extrajudicial killings.
The deployment of the warships and the bombings are further signs that tensions between the United States and Venezuela are escalating, prompting growing speculation that the U.S. could try to use military force against Venezuela.

The Trump administration has linked the deployment to its long-running effort to remove Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has asserted that Maduro leads a “designated narco-terrorist organization,” accusing him of trafficking drugs into the United States. Washington has also placed a $50 million bounty on Maduro’s capture.

Behind the scenes, reports suggest the Pentagon has drafted plans for limited strikes inside Venezuela and that President Trump has authorized the CIA to conduct lethal covert operations there. These steps—combined with the scale of U.S. military assets in the region—have fueled concern among regional governments, human rights organizations, and foreign-policy scholars that the situation could spiral.

But critics argue the justification for U.S. action is a fabrication. The existence of a Venezuelan government-run “Cartel de los Soles,” let alone its control of the transnational cocaine trade from Venezuela, has been largely debunked. And while “Tren de Aragua” is a real criminal organization with a transnational presence, it lacks the capacity to operate in the ways suggested by the United States; it certainly pales in comparison to the power of cartels in Colombia, Mexico, or Ecuador.

Supporters of the administration counter that pressure on Maduro is necessary to combat corruption and alleviate Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis. Yet diplomatic efforts remain stalled, and fears are rising that intensified U.S. military activity—intentional or accidental—could tip an already volatile relationship into conflict.

GUEST: 

Guillaume Long is a senior research fellow at the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

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This episode will be recorded on Monday, November 24, 2025, at 12:00 p.m.

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David Martin Davies can be reached at dmdavies@tpr.org and on Twitter at @DavidMartinDavi