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Two-time Democratic congressional candidate and former Under Secretary of the U.S. Air Force Gina Ortiz Jones maintained her lead in UTSA's Center for Public Opinion Research (CPOR) April poll, up from 10% to 13.5% compared to the university’s March poll.
District 9 Councilmember John Courage remained in second place despite a slight drop in support from 7.9% to 7.1%, and tech entrepreneur Beto Altamirano jumped into third place with 6.6% support, up from 3.6% support in the March poll.
A third of all respondents to the likely voter poll did not know who they would vote for, and 15% said they were not familiar with any of the candidates.
Only five other candidates polled above 1%:
- District 8 Councilmember Manny Peláez: 5%
- Former Texas Secretary of State Rolando Pablos: 5%
- District 6 Councilmember Melissa Cabello Havrda: 4.4%
- District 4 Councilmember Adriana Rocha Garcia: 3.7%
- Former District 10 Councilmember Clayton Perry: 3.5%
- Tim Westley: 3.2%.
CPOR Director Bryan Gervais said only three candidates have statistically significant leads over their competitors.
“Gina Ortiz Jones' leads over her competitors are all statistically significant, so that's a real lead, she's the real leader of the pack," Gervais said. "John Courage holds [statistically] significant leads over all candidates polling below 5%, and Altamirano has [statistically] significant leads over everyone who's polling below 4%."
The five candidates outside of the top three are all in a statistical tie given the poll’s margin of error of 3.7%.
Early voting starts on April 22, and election day is May 3. The mayoral race will likely go into a runoff between the top two candidates; early voting for the runoff will begin on May 27, and the runoff election day is June 7.
The poll found voter sentiment fell for Project Marvel, the use of the Bexar County venue tax to pay for a portion of a new downtown Spurs arena, and the proposed San Antonio Missions downtown baseball stadium.
Project Marvel is the city’s plan to launch a sports and entertainment district downtown centered on a new Spurs arena near Hemisfair that is also proposed to include an expansion to the Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center, a pedestrian land bridge over IH-37, and more.
Support for Project Marvel in CPOR’s March poll was 41%. CPOR’s latest poll showed support fell to 34%.
The Bexar County venue tax is a tax on hotel and car rentals that voters must decide to increase. The county, city, and Spurs have all said they want to ask voters to support an increase in the hotel portion of the venue tax to pay for some portion of the estimated $1.5 billion Spurs arena in November. But the latest CPOR poll found that 44% of respondents oppose using the venue tax for the Spurs arena, and 40%. That’s changed from March when 41% opposed using the venue tax and 42% supported it.
And support for the estimated $160 million Missions stadium fell from 41% to 34% in the latest CPOR poll, the first time support for the Missions stadium has dropped under 40% in CPOR’s polls.
The CPOR polled 685 registered likely voters in San Antonio in English and Spanish.
