Central Texas had its first freeze warning of the season Tuesday night – and like every winter since 2021, many are wondering how the power grid will hold up to the weather. Ever since Winter Storm Uri left millions across Texas without power for days, the reliability of the Texas energy grid has been a topic of concern.
So as we gear up for another winter season, how is the grid looking?
Mose Buchele, who covers energy and the environment for KUT News, said the state has made improvements in the last four years.
“The main thing that they point to is what they call weatherization or winterization of power plants,” he said. “They started mandating that power plants get ready for freezing cold weather so their components don’t freeze up.
“They also mandated similar things for the natural gas supply line that feeds a lot of these power plants. Some people are a little skeptical that that was accomplished to the same degree, but there certainly are new rules for that. They’ve also changed the market structure of the way that energy is bought and sold in the state so that there is more electricity in reserve in case the grid gets kind of tight.”
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, serves over 90% of Texans and has largely been isolated from the national grid, and that limited electricity import during times of crisis. Despite concerns from the public, Buchele said, that has not really changed.
“We still are an energy island,” he said. “There are some small connections between our grid and other grids. But basically we run our own show here in Texas. There’s a proposal to build a new connection. But again, that would be years off.
“And there’s no real interest, it seems, from the state in unifying our grid with neighboring grids. There are federal proposals, and indeed legislation at the federal level that’s been proposed, but nothing here.”
ERCOT has said that Texans will be better off than we were last winter, but that doesn’t mean blackouts are off the table.
“Recently, the head of ERCOT said that during peak energy demand this winter, we maybe have about a 9% of an energy emergency,” Buchele said. “This is where they might start taking emergency action to bolster the grid. Last year, he said it was around 12%. I’m rounding out these numbers.
“Now, if we had another storm like we had in 2021, it’s a very different picture. ERCOT still says there’s about an 80% likelihood of rolling blackouts if we get a storm like that.”
However, a storm that severe is not a given by any means – and ERCOT has said the blackouts would not be as bad or long-lasting as they were during Uri, Buchele said. But despite the forecast for an overall warmer winter, cold snaps are still expected.
“The meteorologist for ERCOT says that this winter has all the hallmarks of what we’ve seen in recent winters,” Buchele said. “On average, it’s warmer, but we could very likely, possibly see a major cold snap, too. So you have to be prepared for that.”
Buchele said there are a number of things people can do to prepare.
“This isn’t about electricity, but I would recommend everybody figure out how to shut off water to their house, because you don’t want your pipes to freeze and break. And that was a huge problem, if you remember, in that big blackout,” he said. “You want to obviously familiarize yourself with the local emergency procedures, if there are emergency shelters, if you do lose power for long amounts of time.
“Obviously, a lot of people went out, if they could afford it, got generators, and tried to kind of improve the resilience of their own homes. But that’s not for everybody, and not everyone can afford that. But still, you could do something simple like get a little power bank to make sure your cell phone is charged so you can try to keep getting information if there’s an emergency. Stock up on essentials. All the things you do for an emergency.”
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