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Statistically Speaking, the Spurs Are Superior, Says Researcher

Hilton Palacio del Rio

The heat is on in San Antonio, but fans hope the Spurs can be on the Heat in Miami for Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

Statistically speaking, the Spurs are a superior team, according to Analytic Focus researcher Gianfranco Semino, who says the Spurs as a whole have better numbers than the Heat, and the percentages go up when you take out the big three players on each team, including Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili of the Spurs, and LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade of the Heat.

Semino says the supporting cast of the Spurs is also statistically superior.

“We see that San Antonio has a better overall team,” he said. “If their supporting cast plays like they have been playing in the past six games, they have a 55 percent chance of winning."

That said, Semino says the stats for the Heat go down from there. Given that the Heat won Game 6 with three points, he crunched the numbers to reveal that Miami only has an 11 percent chance of winning two games in a row.

Additionally, he says Miami has a 49 percent chance of winning if their big three play the same amount of time they have played on average during the last six games. With those factors, San Antonio, he says, has a 57 percent chance of winning.

And the Spurs have experience. They’ve been to finals games before, and they’ve done well – even on the road.

“Miami has appeared in the finals three times,” Semino said. “From those three times they've only won it 66 percent of the time. They have a 34 percent chance of losing these finals. On the other hand, we know the record that San Antonio has. They've appeared in the finals four times and they've won them all."

Semino’s conclusion is that these are just a few observations from the series, but that San Antonio stands a 53 percent chance of winning Game 7 to claim a fifth NBA Championship title. San Antonio, in his estimation, is more powerful and a more complete team than their rivals in the Sunshine State.

Ryan Loyd was Texas Public Radio's city beat and political reporter. He left the organization in December, 2014.