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A political power play is quietly unfolding in Texas that could redraw the state's congressional map and decide which power rules in Congress. The goal is to squeeze more Republican seats out of Texas. But there are red flags, and this could backfire on the GOP.
Currently in Texas there are 38 congressional seats. Of those 38, 25 are represented by Republicans and 12 seats by Democrats. There’s one vacant seat in a solid blue district in Houston that won’t be filled until November. Only three of the 38 are considered competitive swing seats, where it’s possible that a Republican or a Democrat could win. The remaining 35 seats are safe. The maps were drawn in a way to give those incumbents, Republicans or Democrats, a pretty sure shot at being re-elected.
But all that could soon change.
“That's right. They want to push it even further,” said Texas Democratic Congressman Greg Casar. He’s noting that Texas is already considered one of the most gerrymandered states according to FiveThirtyEight, the statistical political journalism website.
Because Donald Trump won Texas in 2024 with 56 percent of the vote, then if the congressional map was drawn without a partisan bent, Republicans would have about 22 seats — not 25. And those three extra GOP seats? That’s been enough for the Republicans to gain control of the current congress.
Now Casar says the Trump White House wants even more Republican seats out of Texas.
“Donald Trump is clearly just freaking out. He thought he was going to be popular, but Donald Trump's popularity has plummeted in the last few months. So, Trump feels like he's going to lose this midterm election,” Casar said.
Historically the party of the current president, Republican or Democrat, loses seats in Congress during the mid-term election. This would be bad news for Trump. A Democratically controlled Congress would torpedo his legislative agenda, and Trump could be impeached again.
But Trump just can’t order Texas to redraw the congressional map. Only Governor Greg Abbott can do that— by calling a special session. And Abbott hasn’t indicated whether he’s going to do that. Texas state representative Jeff Leach, a Republican from Allen, told KTVT CBS Dallas that lawmakers are prepared in case he does.
“We're going to see what happens over the next few weeks. And if the governor calls us back into special session, whether it's on redistricting or any other matter, then we'll show back up to Austin and we'll do our jobs,” said Leach.
But to achieve Trump’s goal of getting more GOP seats out of Texas, that would mean remaking safe Republican districts and turning them into not so safe districts. That’s because the new map would be spreading thin the state’s Republican voters. But what happens if they are spread too thin?
New York Representative Hakeem Jeffries, leader of the House Democrats says that could be a gift for Democrats.
“A lot of Democrats that we've talked to from Texas who've actually come to the conclusion, based on the fact that the map is already gerrymandered at its height, that they could open up four to six swing seat opportunities that don't exist right now for Democrats,” Jeffries said.
Jeffries said a new Texas map could give Democrats enough seats to take the majority back.
“Be careful what you wish for because you just might get it, and you won't like the result,” he said.
Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, says a mid-decade redistricting for political advantage happened before in Texas and there’s nothing to stop it from happening again.
“The 2003 redistricting and ripple effects of that as one of the great political stories in Texas history,” said Jillson.
Democrats tried to block the redistricting by breaking quorum and fleeing the state. But all that did was slow down the process.
“And I think what's distinctive about the potential redistricting that could occur in Texas now is that there is a lot more ambivalence, particularly in Texas, about the prospects of this mid-decade redistricting. It seems to be pushed principally by political people in Washington, DC specifically in the White House,” he said.
Jillson says many Republican members of the U.S. House are not keen on this plan because it will endanger their political futures. They have comfortable districts that they can easily win in.
“So some of them are dragging their feet,” he said.
If they drag their feet too long the window of pulling this off before mid-terms could close. The deadline to file a Declaration of Intent to run for congress in Texas is December 8, 2025.
