A new poll released Wednesday shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton with a commanding lead over incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in either a two-person race or a three-person race in next year’s Republican primary. But Paxton's lead in the poll shrinks dramatically against potential Democratic rivals in the 2026 general election.
The poll from Texan Southern University's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center shows Paxton leading Cornyn by 9 percentage points in a two-person race and by 7 points if U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston enters the primary.
"Right now, if it's a head-to-head race between Paxton and Cornyn, Paxton is a very strong favorite, and it's tough to see how, absent, say, a Trump endorsement of Cornyn, Cornyn could effectively flip the table on Paxton," said Mark Jones, political science fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute and co-author of the survey with TSU's Michael O. Adams.
But Paxton's lead drops to 3 points in a hypothetical matchup against Democratic Congressman Joaquin Castro of San Antonio and to just 2 points against former Dallas Congressman Colin Allred, putting either Democrat within striking distance of victory. The poll shows both Cornyn and Hunt leading either Democrat by larger margins.
"Going into November, Paxton is likely to be the weakest candidate Republicans could put forward, and either Cornyn or Hunt would be the strongest candidate," Jones said.
Jones said Paxton's history of marital infidelity and corruption charges won't likely hurt him among Republican primary voters. But he said that record could hurt Paxton badly in the general election against a well-funded Democratic candidate, particularly if President Donald Trump is seen as performing poorly and the economy is in the doldrums.
"Instead of facing a Democratic rival who has maybe $500,000 to spend, Paxton would find himself facing a Democratic rival who has $50-$75 million to spend, either themselves or with groups supporting them spending that money," Jones said.
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