The presidential race's candidates include:
- Donald J. Trump / JD Vance (R)
- Kamala D. Harris / Tim Walz (D)
- Chase Oliver / Mike Ter Maat (L)
- Jill Stein / Rudolph Ware (G)
Analysis: Cook Political Report rated Texas and its 40 electoral college votes as "likely Republican" in the presidential race.
The latest survey by the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs explained that former president Donald Trump holds a 5% lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among likely Texas voters.
In May, Trump became the first former president in U.S. history to be convicted of a felony when a jury in Manhattan found him guilty on 34 counts. Four separate indictments were issued against Trump between March and August 2023. Since then, Trump has won a string of victories in the three other cases against him and his popularity in Texas has not fluctuated.
The online survey of about 1,300 likely voters reported that most Texans were unlikely to change their minds — 97% of Trump supporters and 96% of Harris supporters said they were certain about their choice. The survey's margin of error was 2.7%.
"Barring an implosion at the national level, there’s nothing that’s going to cause Donald Trump to lose in Texas," said Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy and a senior research fellow for UH's Hobby School.
The survey also showed sharp divides along racial, gender and age lines. Among white voters, Trump held a 22% lead, while Harris led Trump by 70% among likely Black voters.
The candidates were neck-and-neck when it came to Latino voters, with Trump leading by 1 percentage point.
Men favored Trump by 15%, while women preferred Harris by 5%. White men were Trump's strongest base of support in Texas with a 33 point lead, while Black women were Harris' strongest group of support with a 78 point lead.
Voters were also split by age groups — 61% of Baby Boomers supported Trump, with 61% of Gen Z'ers favoring Harris.
Harris voters' top issues include "the future of U.S. democracy," as well as the economy, health care and abortion. Trump voters pointed to immigration and border security as their top issues, followed by the economy, crime and foreign policy.
Jill Stein, a physician from Chicago, is running again as the Green Party's candidate. She ran for president under the Green Party ticket in 2012 and 2016.
Chase Oliver, a political activist from Atlanta, represents the Libertarian Party. Oliver ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. House and Senate in 2020 and 2022 respectively.
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