According to the latest survey by the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs, former president Donald Trump holds a 5% lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among likely Texas voters.
According to the online survey of about 1,300 likely voters, most Texans are unlikely to change their minds — 97% of Trump supporters and 96% of Harris supporters say they're certain about their choice. The survey's margin of error was 2.7%.
"Barring an implosion at the national level, there’s nothing that’s going to cause Donald Trump to lose in Texas," said Mark P. Jones, political science fellow Fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy and a senior research fellow for UH's Hobby School. He spoke to Houston Matters Tuesday morning.
The survey also showed sharp divides along racial, gender and age lines.
Among white voters, Trump holds a 22% lead, while Harris leads Trump by 70% among likely Black voters.
The candidates are neck-and-neck when it comes to Latino voters, with Trump leading by 1 percentage point.
"That’s also another reason why Trump’s doing well," Jones said. "In spite of not doing as well with white voters as Republicans have done in the past, he’s doing better with Latino voters, and that’s making up for the difference."
Men favor Trump by 15%, while women prefer Harris by 5%. White men are Trump's strongest base of support in Texas with a 33-point lead, while Black women are Harris' strongest group of support with a 78-point lead.
Voters are also split by age groups. 61% of Baby Boomers support Trump, with 61% of Gen Z favor Harris.
Harris voters' top issues include "the future of U.S. democracy," as well as the economy, health care and abortion. Trump voters point to immigration and border security as their top issue, followed by the economy, crime and foreign policy.
Senator Ted Cruz's base is slightly less enthusiastic. Cruz holds a 4-point lead over challenger Colin Allred, compared to Trump's 5-point lead.
When it comes to the statewide race for the Texas Railroad Commissioner race, which will determine who oversees regulation of the state's oil and gas industry, Republican Christi Craddick leads Democrat Katherine Culbert by 7 percentage points. The gender gap that exists for Trump and Cruz, who fall short among women by 5 and 7 percentage points, is eliminated in the Railroad Commissioner race with Craddick and Culbert tied.
Early voting kicks off on Monday, Oct. 21. Harris County has 88 early voting sites. Election Day is Nov. 5.