Vice President Kamala Harris has amassed 44.6% favorability among Texas voters ahead of the November general election, according to the most recent elections poll.
The poll, conducted by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs and Texas Southern University, determined about 49.5% of surveyed Texans intend to vote for former Republican President Donald Trump.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who is projected to drop out of the race as soon as this week, garnered about 2% of the vote— less than the 2.7% of undetermined voters.
“What Kamala Harris’s candidacy suggests via this poll is that it’s brought Democrats back to their baseline,” Mark Jones, a research fellow at the Hobby School said. “So they have to worry less about losing in light blue counties like Harris County or Fort Bend County, or in the small number of competitive legislative districts that lean democratic.”
Harris has quickly garnered support from party voters who promote the Democratic presidential pick as an energetic candidate— rallying younger Americans and amassing 4.3 more percentage points among Texans than President Joe Biden in a survey earlier this year.
Bob Stein, a Rice University political scientist said the poll is evidence that the GOP-dominant state has the ability to track national polling results in its Republican-Democratic split.
“The short-term story here suggests that Texas is reacting to Harris’ nomination a lot of the same ways that the country is,” Bob Stein, a Rice University political science professor said.
In a survey conducted by the university in June, Trump had a nine-point lead over Biden. A month later, Biden announced his dismissal from the 2024 race, making way for Harris’s presidential campaign.
In Texas, Trump holds an 18% point lead over Harris among men. Harris holds a 6% point lead over Trump.
57% of white Texans intend to vote for Trump, 47% of Latino voters plan to vote for Trump, and 46% of Latino voters intend to vote for Harris, according to the survey.
“I think you are seeing evidence of competitiveness here,” Stein said. “Democrats may need to start changing their tune on education, abortion and particularly on public spending.”
Another big takeaway from the survey, he said, is U.S. Rep. Colin Allred appearing to poll favorably for the U.S. Senate in Texas. The survey found his longtime Republican challenger Ted Cruz is leading the Texas vote by 46.6% to Allred’s 44.5%.
Black voters favor Allred over Cruz by 72% to 20%, according to the survey. Hispanic voters support Allred over Cruz by a smaller margin, about 46% to 40%.
“In a March survey, a Kennedy candidacy brought out voters that would’ve normally voted for Trump but didn’t want to vote for Trump,” he said.
“If Kennedy pulls out and endorses Trump, that becomes really interesting,” he said.
Lucio Vasquez contributed to this report.
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