Hurricane Beryl may not have done the damage to Greater Houston of a Harvey or an Ike. But the economic impact of the latest storm is likely to fall hardest on the people least able to bear it.
Many businesses, ranging from gas stations to fast food restaurants, have shut down for days without power. House cleaners and other service workers have taken enforced breaks, as clients lack air conditioning in the severe heat.
"Events like this tend to impact the people who can afford it least, the hourly workers," said Patrick Jankowski, chief economist with the Greater Houston Partnership. "If they can't report to work, then they're not collecting a paycheck, and they're already living on the edge, so this makes it that much more challenging for them. And if they've had to empty out their refrigerator twice in the last three months, that becomes a financial burden for them."
The burden is likely to be less severe for salaried employees who can work remotely if they have power. "They're still going to get paid," he said.
Jankowski said it may be weeks or even months before the full cost of Beryl is known. That's because of the lag time in reporting data that's used to analyze the full economic picture.
"There are several things we'll be looking at," Jankowski said. "We'll be looking at sales tax receipts. We'll be looking at employment levels. We'll be looking at the Purchasing Managers' Index. We'll be looking at traffic and cargo through the port and through the airport(s)."
Some of that economic data will reflect spending on recovery from the storm. It will include contractors hired for home or business repairs and food to restock refrigerators that had to be emptied because of power outages.
But Jankowski said the net effect of the storm on the local economy is likely to be negative, at least in the short term.
"If there's money that you're spending to repair your house, that's money that you would have spent taking your wife out to eat," he said. "If there's money that you're spending on propane or hurricane supplies, that's money that you could be spending to take your children to the movies or something like that.”
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