Sign up for TPR Today, Texas Public Radio's newsletter that brings our top stories to your inbox each morning.
The Texas legislature released its first proposed congressional redistricting maps this week that would create five new Republican-favored seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Two San Antonio-area Democratic congressmembers could lose their seats as a result.
President Donald Trump directed the legislature and Gov. Greg Abbott to engage in the rare mid-decade redistricting in an effort to hold onto the national Republicans’ thin House majority in next year’s midterm elections, a time when the party in power typically loses seats in Congress.
Changes to San Antonio-area districts go after Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar in CD 28 and Democratic Rep. Greg Casar in CD 35.
Cuellar’s district is redrawn out of San Antonio to strengthen its Republican voter base, dropping San Antonio’s congressional representation from five to four.
Cuellar held onto the seat in 2024 despite being under felony indictment for bribery and the fact that his district voted for Trump.
Jon Taylor, professor of political science and chair of the Department of Political Science and Geography at the University of Texas at San Antonio, said the more surprising target was Casar.
“They moved it so far in such a way to essentially almost guarantee a Republican win in this newly reconstituted 35th District,” Taylor said.
CD 35 currently runs from Austin down IH-35 into San Antonio. The proposed CD 35 cuts out Austin entirely and concentrates around San Antonio’s conservative suburbs.
The result of both changes isn't just the loss of a congressional seat of San Antonio. It radically reshapes the party representation of San Antonio’s congressional delegation.
“You've got a map that reduces the Democrats footprint from three seats to one seat,” Taylor said.
San Antonio, which reliably votes for Democrats in statewide and federal elections, would likely be sending a congressional delegation to D.C. that is overwhelmingly Republican — four to one.
U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro’s CD 20 was made an even safer Democratic seat in the core of San Antonio to weaken the Democrats surrounding him.
Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales’ CD 23 has absorbed some of Republican Congressman Chip Roy’s CD 21, while Roy’s district now includes sections of Alamo Heights, Olmos Park, and Shavano Park.
Taylor said Democrats in the Texas statehouse and beyond can engage in breaking quorum, messaging from the bully pulpit, and pursuing legal strategies to defeat Republican maps.
But he said Democrats’ odds to stop them are long.
“They eventually will lose,” Taylor said. “They just don't have the votes in the state house or the state senate. They don't have a statewide elected official. They don't have somebody who could veto it as a governor could. There's nothing like that. So they're left to the courts. And right now, the courts are not very friendly.”
Taylor said Republicans’ likely victory in creating the new maps is not a guarantee they will actually net them the seats they hope.
“You could end up with a situation that Republicans have drawn these new district lines, moving Democrats to Republican areas, moving Republicans to Democratic areas,” he said. “And you would think these districts might be more amenable to Republicans, because those areas in 2024 may have voted for Trump, but they may not turn out and vote for a Republican for Congress in ‘26, therefore creating the process of what's called a ‘dummymander. ... I don't know if they've been able to thread the needle.”
Hearings on the maps were expected to begin on Friday in the Texas legislature’s special session — a session also tasked with tackling flood response legislation and THC regulation among other priorities.
Other mid-decade redistricting efforts are now being considered or pursued by Republican and Democratic states across the country, from Ohio to California.
