Texas Republicans have released a proposed map to redraw the state's congressional districts. The move has the potential to give President Donald Trump the five seats he's seeking for GOP pickups in the 2026 midterms. But in the near term, it raises the likelihood that Democrats will bolt the state to deny Republicans quorum they need to enact the map into law during the state Legislature’s special session.
Speaking on Houston Matters, Renée Cross, senior executive director of the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs, addressed the trips Democratic House members have made to New Mexico, Illinois, California, and Michigan since the start of the special session.
"Particularly with the New Mexico [trip], there has been some discussion about how friendly the state’s going to be for the Democrats that are breaking quorum," Cross said.
Mark Jones, a political science fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute of Public Policy, made a similar point as he described the packed special session agenda.
"We're one third of the way through the session and very little has occurred, and the likelihood is that this whole redistricting saga is going to overshadow things and the more people believe there’s going to be a quorum break, the less intense will be the pressure to actually do anything else," Jones said.
The proposed map would target districts held by Democratic Representatives Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez in districts stretching into the Rio Grande Valley, and Representatives Marc Veasey and Jule Johnson in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. They also set up a potential contest between Representatives Greg Casar and Lloyd Doggett in Central Texas.
"Based on what I'm seeing, it certainly is possible that there could be five more Republican members in the next Congress relative to now," said Marc Meredith, a political scientist at the University of Pennsylvania.
Mark Gaber, senior director for redistricting at the Campaign Legal Center, argued that the map was explicitly aimed at breaking up districts long defined as opportunity seats for coalitions of Black and Latino residents.
"This certainly didn't originate from the Texas Legislature," Gaber said. "It originated in Washington, DC. The map drawer lives in Virginia. I think that should give some pause to the people of Texas, why someone in suburban Virginia is drawing Texas's congressional maps."
Gaber said the maps were drawn by Adam Kincaid, head of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, who previously drew the state's current congressional map in 2021. The U.S. Department of Justice helped kick off the current round of redistricting with a letter to Gov. Greg Abbott, identifying four districts from that 2021 map as "unconstitutional racial gerrymanders." Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and other state Republican officeholders had previously testified in court that the 2021 map was drawn in a "race blind" manner.
Democratic condemnations of the new map came thick and fast. Houston state Sen. Carol Alvarado blasted the new boundaries on Hello Houston.
"This is the biggest pile of Texas turd I've seen in a long time and the Republicans are about to step in it," Alvarado said. "This does not pass the smell test."
Democratic Congressman Al Green, whose Houston district was shifted from one side of the city to the other, issued his own statement.
“Point one: the map is extreme invidious discrimination and accomplishes what the President has demanded of the Governor and more,” Green said. “Two, the DOJ demanded that the race card be played, and the Governor dealt the people of Texas a racist hand.”
At the national level, Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin released a statement attacking Trump and Abbott for pushing the redistricting initiative at a time when Texans are still recovering from the deadly Hill Country flood.
"This newest attempt to save Republicans from the wrath of the voters after they passed Trump's budget betrayal is an assault on Texas voters and a likely violation of the Voting Rights Act. It won't work," Martin said. "We will be exploring all options to fight back against this racial gerrymander."
Houston Public Media reached out to Republican state Rep. Todd Hunter, who filed the proposed map, and Republican state Rep. Cody Vasut, chair of the House Select Committee on Congressional Redistricting for comment. Neither responded.
Hearings for the new map begin this Friday.
Copyright 2025 Houston Public Media News 88.7