Former Dallas Congressman and 2024 U.S. Senate candidate Colin Allred formally announced Tuesday he's making a second run for the Senate in 2026, this time likely against either Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn or Cornyn's main challenger, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
"Today, everything seems backwards. Folks who play by the rules and keep the faith just can't seem to get ahead. But the folks who cut corners and cut deals – well, they're doing just fine," Allred said in a video announcing his candidacy. "I'm announcing my candidacy for the United States Senate to lower costs and stop corrupt politicians like John Cornyn and Ken Paxton from rigging the economy against hard working Texans."
Michael O. Adams, founding director of the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, said Allred's move puts pressure on the other potential Democratic candidates to decide quickly whether they plan to enter the race.
"I think [Allred] made a strategic decision to be the first mover," Adams said, "with the clock now ticking for the other three candidates who are likely to enter the race on the Democrat side, and those being [former El Paso Congressman] Beto O’Rourke, Joaquin Castro, Congressman from San Antonio, and state Representative [James] Talarico from Austin, Texas."
Elizabeth Simas, associate professor of political science at Texas A&M University, said Allred’s early entry could deter other potential Democratic candidates from entering the Senate contest.
"[Allred] has the name recognition. He's shown that he can run, although a losing campaign, a coherent and effective campaign," Simas said. "He has backers. He has money. He is a presence. And so, I think some of the names that would most likely get tossed around might be a little bit discouraged given his entry already into the race."
Allred previously lost his Senate bid against Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024 by 8½ percentage points. O'Rourke lost his 2018 bid against Cruz by 2½ percentage points, the strongest statewide performance by a Texas Democrat in decades, but he subsequently lost the 2022 Texas gubernatorial contest against incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott by nearly 11 points.
Nevertheless, Adams considers Allred and O'Rourke the likely frontrunners in the Democratic primary, if O'Rourke gets into the race.
"Clearly both of those candidates, O’Rourke and Allred, with the name recognition, comes also the ability to raise large sums of money," Adams said.
According to the Federal Election Commission, Allred raised and spent close to $95 million in his 2024 Senate run against Cruz. O'Rourke raised about $77 million in his 2022 gubernatorial run against Abbott.
Former NASA astronaut Terry Virts also is running for the Democratic nomination for the Senate seat, having announced his candidacy last week.
A recent Barbara Jordan Center poll shows Cornyn beating Allred in a general election contest by 48% to 44% and Cornyn beating O'Rourke by 48% to 43%. If Paxton is the Republican nominee, however, the poll shows the contest as much closer, with Paxton leading Allred by 48% to 46% – within the poll’s margin of error – and Paxton leading O'Rourke by 49% to 45%.
“The better matchup for Allred would be against Paxton, just for the basic reason that Paxton is not the incumbent,” Simas said. “Any time a candidate is running against an incumbent like Cornyn, it’s going to be more of an uphill battle. The tide is likely to be a little more favorable to Democrats in the upcoming election, just because the trends in midterm elections are that the president’s party loses seats.”
If Allred does wind up convincing other potential Democratic candidates to sit out the Senate race, that could lead to those Democrats vying for other statewide offices. Adams said that could raise the odds of a statewide Democratic victory in at least one race for the first time in more than three decades.
"I think what O’Rourke and some of the others they’re looking at, I think they have the best chance in years to at least win a statewide race, whether that’s the U.S. Senate or we have a number of races, the plural executive, which are also important — attorney general, comptroller," Adams said. "And if they could field candidates in each of those races, and they are able to increase voter turnout, the chances are much better in winning one of those seats."