The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects an active hurricane season with record-warm ocean temperatures in their forecast.
On Thursday, forecasters predicted an 85% chance of an above-normal hurricane season with 17-25 named storms. About 8-13 are forecasted to become hurricanes, and 4-7 are predicted to become major hurricanes. This is the highest number NOAA has ever delivered for the May outlook.
In addition, NOAA scientists are predicting a 77% chance of the formation of La Niña, a consistent cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central Pacific.
"La Niña can lead to weaker easterly trade winds and below-average vertical wind shear in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean," said NOAA Chief Scientist Rick Spinrad. "This type of environment can be more conducive to tropical cyclone development."
NOAA forecasters are expecting above-average sea surface temperatures during the peak months of August to October. These temperatures lead to the escalation of tropical cyclones to major hurricane status.
The most destructive major hurricanes have high accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). Projections for ACE range from 150% to 245%, which is the second-highest measurement behind 2010.
The main cause of this, according to NOAA lead forecaster Matt Rosencrans, is the water is getting warmer.
"The sea surface in the main development region right now is … 2-3 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. They are equivalent to what we normally see in August and they are dramatically warmer than in 2005," he said.
2005 was one of the most destructive years for hurricanes. That year included Hurricane Katrina among several others. The NOAA forecast is similar to reports released by other weather services.
FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik Hooks said that 90% of fatalities occur from the water during storms and are preventable.
“Most of those are from freshwater … rainfall. If you take half of those, those are automobiles (incidents); it’s preventable,” he said. “Turn around, don’t drown.”