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The National Weather Service reported on Wednesday that there is a slight chance a tropical wave could push over Texas next week, dropping temperatures below 100 and triggering some scattered showers.
Forecasters said a high pressure system that has been sitting over South Texas and the Hill Country like a glass dome over a cake may shift just enough to allow the tropical wave to blow in.
The high-pressure system has dried up shower activity, blocked out significant breezes, and allowed temperatures to soar to record levels this summer.
On Wednesday, forecasters said the best chance of rain was next Tuesday. Nearly a third of the city could see scattered showers and a high of 99. Anything below 100 this summer is considered somewhat as relief by many scorched San Antonians.
However, the weather service cautioned overheated residents to not get too excited about the tropical wave's possible impact, since it definitely would not end the drought.
Forecasters said the high pressure system could also end up being a spoiler again by shifting in the wrong direction, keeping the tropical wave from moving in.
But, one NWS weather statement read "there's finally something else to talk about other than extreme heat and fire weather."
Forecasters also kept their eyes on the activity in the Gulf of Mexico.
"A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week," read a weather statement.
There is a low chance (20%) for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico early next week. We want to stress 1) It is too soon to determine what impacts, if any, will occur across South Central Texas 2) Please follow trusted sources like https://t.co/ONza7RzOTp and @NHC_Atlantic pic.twitter.com/ICLeKQLHun
— NWS Austin/San Antonio (@NWSSanAntonio) August 16, 2023
National forecasters also recently increased their confidence for an overall busier than usual hurricane season in the Atlantic through Nov. 30.
The San Antonio area, South Texas, and all of the Hill Country are in dire need of rain that tropical disturbances could bring. All cities big and small are following moderate to severe water restrictions due to the drought.
Some Hill Country communities and areas west of San Antonio have banned all outdoor watering, except to sustain livestock.
At San Antonio International Airport, only an inch or rain has fallen since June 1. For the year, only 13 inches of precipitation has fallen, or more than six inches below normal rainfall amounts for the year to date.
Wildfires are a growing problem too. Bexar County Fire Marshal Chris Lopez urged residents to clear their properties of anything that could fuel a wildfire that could spread to their home, such as woodpiles, propane tanks, and overgrown vegetation.
Bexar County Commissioners last week approved a 90-day ban on outdoor burning based on the wildfire threat outlined by Lopez.
Earlier this month, a grass fire gutted a home in North Bexar County, off U.S. 281.
The Texas A&M Forest Service this week reported a grass fire in Guadalupe County, northeast of San Antonio, burned more than 300 acres before it was contained.
The exact cause of the fire was not known, but it was believed to be "human caused," the service reported.
Two smaller grass fires in Medina County, west of San Antonio, charred a combined 60 acres before they were fully contained.
