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Still good odds that tropical disturbances will bring rain relief to South Texas and Hill Country

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NOAA
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Recently updated hurricane season forecast from NOAA

There are still good odds for rain-starved residents of South Texas and the Hill Country to see relief in the form of tropical disturbances from the Gulf of Mexico.

National weather forecasters still favor an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, according to NOAA’s annual mid-season update issued on Thursday by the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service.

“I urge everyone to remain vigilant as we enter the peak months of hurricane season,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “The experts at NOAA will continue to provide the science, data and services needed to help communities become hurricane resilient and climate-ready for the remainder of hurricane season and beyond.”

While there are still good odds, NOAA forecasters slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% in their midseason update. A reduction of only 5% from the May forecast. The likelihood of near-normal activity has risen to 30% and the chances remain at 10% for a below-normal season, according to the NOAA website.

“We’re just getting into the peak months of August through October for hurricane development, and we anticipate that more storms are on the way,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad. “NOAA stands ready to deliver timely and accurate forecasts and warnings to help communities prepare in advance of approaching storms.”

NOAA’s update to the 2022 outlook through Nov. 30 calls for 14-20 named storms, of which 6-10 could become hurricanes. Of those, 3-5 could become major hurricanes.

So far, the season has seen three named storms and no hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes, according to the NOAA website.

The Hill County and San Antonio are in dire need of rain as the drought worsens,
waterways dry up, and water restrictions continue.

Rainfall for the year in San Antonio is now nearly 14 inches below normal.

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Brian Kirkpatrick can be reached at brian@tpr.org and on Twitter at @TPRBrian