STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
It's hard to get your brain around the significance of an assassination in the Mideast, but we're going to try. Ismail Haniyeh was the political leader of the Palestinian group Hamas. He was visiting Iran, when, according to Iranian state media, he was killed. Iran is blaming Israel and, through Israel, is blaming the United States. And Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is saying that avenging Haniyeh's killing is Tehran's duty now.
Let's begin our coverage with James Hider. He covered the Mideast as a reporter for many years and is now NPR's Middle East editor, reporting today from Jaffa, Israel. Hi there, James.
JAMES HIDER, BYLINE: Morning.
INSKEEP: What happened?
HIDER: So Hamas is saying that Israel assassinated Haniyeh in Tehran just after he'd attended the swearing in of Iran's new president. And the Iranian news agency, Fars, is saying that he was killed by what they called an airborne guided projectile, so an airstrike of some form - whether a missile or a drone, we don't know. And Israel has declined to comment, which is very normal for Israel because admitting it could be seen as a further provocation that might force Iran or Hamas into some kind of overt retaliation.
And although Israel and Iran are sworn enemies, neither side actually wants an all-out war with the other right now, as we came very close back in April. But this attack did actually just come hours after Israel did admit to killing a senior leader of the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah in Beirut, which in turn was retaliation for a rocket attack at the weekend that killed 12 children in the Golan Heights.
INSKEEP: Wow. So I'm just thinking of all the countries involved. We have Israel. We have Iran. You mentioned Lebanon. The United States touches all of this. And then there's Hamas, which lost its leader in Tehran. What is the likely significance of Haniyeh's death?
HIDER: Well, this is a very dangerous and complicated moment, Steve. Iran does have a whole network of proxies across the region. And experts have been warning that any mistake by any of the various states or militias or armed groups involved in this conflict could trigger a much wider war. And it looks like Saturday's attack on the Golan Heights could actually fit that bill.
But in terms of the war in Gaza right now, Haniyeh was a political leader living in exile. The actual war on the ground is being directed by Hamas' military commander inside Gaza, and that's Yahya Sinwar.
INSKEEP: Right.
HIDER: And he appears determined to keep on fighting. So there's probably not much going to change on the ground right there, right now, but there's the danger that it could get much worse.
INSKEEP: NPR Middle East editor James Hider in Jaffa, Israel. Thank you so much, sir.
HIDER: Thank you.
INSKEEP: And we now have analysis from Trita Parsi, who is executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He has advocated U.S. engagement with Iran in the past, which is relevant here now. Trita, good morning.
TRITA PARSI: Good morning.
INSKEEP: And that's part of this story. Ismail Haniyeh was killed while attending the inauguration of an Iranian president who wanted to reengage with the United States. What does that mean for this part of the story?
PARSI: Well, it likely means that whatever window of opportunity the election of Pezeshkian provided for both the United States and Iran to reengage diplomatically - and, as you may know, the Iranian nuclear program has progressed in a way that is very dangerous and necessitates some sort of a diplomatic round of talks to be able to push it back again. But that window has probably, to a large extent, at least in the short and the medium term, been closed.
And it is noteworthy, of course, that the Israelis knew exactly where Haniyeh was - mindful of the fact that he lives in Qatar and could have probably done it in Qatar at any moment - they chose specifically to do it while he was in Tehran in order to send a couple of signals. One is potentially the desire to shut down the window of any diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Iran, but also send a signal that the different groups that Iran is supporting - Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraqi militias and Hamas - that they are not safe anywhere, including in Tehran, and that Tehran cannot protect them.
INSKEEP: I should note one thing. You say the Israelis did this. I know you're presuming that. We do not have confirmation from Israel that it was involved. And our editor, James Hider, doubts that Israel would own up publicly to such an act, but this is the accusation that is being made. What is the significance of - for Israel - of what would seem to be a more intense confrontation with Iran? Israel has owned up, of course, to killing a Hezbollah leader - that is a leader of another Iran-linked group.
PARSI: Well, as you said, if it was - if it is Israel that was behind this, then within the span of 12 hours, they have targeted both Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran at the same time. It's very difficult to see that as something that is not designed to escalate the situation further. We know that, from the exchange of fire between Iran and Israel back in April, the Israelis wanted to go much further. But it was the Biden administration that restrained Israel and made sure that it absorbed the blows that Iran gave it in retaliation.
The Iranians are likely going to retaliate against this. This is deeply embarrassing for them. And it's going to be very difficult for a lame-duck Biden administration to be able to keep a lid on this compared to what they managed to do in April. At the same time, I think we have to recognize, though, that if the Biden administration had pushed and forced a cease-fire much, much earlier, much of this would have been avoided.
INSKEEP: Ah, let's talk about the cease-fire because our correspondent, Daniel Estrin, tells us that Haniyeh, the man who was killed, was a central figure in negotiating or efforts to negotiate a cease-fire in Gaza. Is that effort now dead?
PARSI: It seems to, at least in the short and the medium term, not only be dead but to be deliberately killed. Netanyahu has systematically undermined these negotiations. Israeli media has even reported how he has selectively released intelligence in order to sabotage the talks. But nothing will have sabotaged the talks more than killing the guy on the other side of the negotiating table.
INSKEEP: One point of view on dramatic news out of the Middle East, and we're going to be hearing much more about it - the assassination of a Hamas leader in Iran. Trita Parsi is executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Thank you so much, sir.
PARSI: Thank you for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
