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A research team from UT San Antonio is studying the floods of June and July 2025 with an objective to help communities prepare for future catastrophic rain events.
The researchers say the data should make officials rethink preconceived ideas about flooding conditions to improve flood forecasting, preparedness and response.
More than 130 people died in the Kerr County flooding on July 4, 2025, and 13 people died in the June 12 flooding on Beitel Creek in northeast San Antonio.
UT San Antonio Ph.D. candidate Ayantika Bose set out to write her dissertation on hydrometeorological extremes in Texas and chose these two events to study.
Bose reconstructed the events using U.S. Army Corps of Engineers modeling, along with data from the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
She says data from the Kerr County flood of 2025 in particular was surprising.
“The South Fork in the Guadalupe River, it rose more than 20 feet in around two hours," said Bose. "And the peak discharge at the Hunt gauge, it was around 9,000 cubic meters per second."
"It broke the highest record that was ever recorded. ... It was just an unprecedented event altogether,” she told TPR.
The Kerr County flood in 2025 crested at 37.25 feet, surpassing the previous record from the flood of 1932, when the river crested at 36.6 feet on July 2.
Bose says both events had one thing in common: “How fast it happened and how unprepared we were to tackle this.”
Hatim O. Sharif is a professor in the Klesse College of Engineering and Integrated Design and is Bose’s adviser and the report's principal investigator. He has been studying flash floods since 2005 when he began his tenure at UT San Antonio.
Sharif says the research clearly shows that not only is more flood monitoring important but better communication with the public is needed.
“Generally, you cannot stop the rain, and large floods will always be dangerous," said Sharif.
"I think what can be changed is how much time people have and how clearly they know what to do," he said. "And also, of course they have to heed the instructions.”
Bose hopes her research will help save lives, but she also stresses the public needs to be better at heeding warnings.
“Please do take those (warnings) seriously and do not do anything that might put you or your family in danger because even if you lose one life, that is going to be a huge loss,” she said.
Both researchers say they hope their study will help improve the response for future major flood events across the state.
The full study is expected to be completed near the end of the year.
