A new survey of likely Harris County voters conducted by the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs shows Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico leading heavily against his Republican opponent, Ken Paxton.
The same survey also shows Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa on track to beat Republican Gov. Greg Abbott as Harris County's favored gubernatorial candidate as Abbott seeks to win an unprecedented fourth term.
According to the survey, 58% of likely Harris County voters said they plan to vote for state Rep. Talarico for the U.S. Senate, compared to 36% for Attorney General Paxton, while 2% said Libertarian candidate Ted Brown, and 4% were still unsure.
“This is a flashing warning light for Paxton supporters,” said Mark Jones, political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute and coauthor of the survey. “This is the type of result that, if it translates to a similar trend statewide, would signal that Talarico is in the driver’s seat or, at least right now, with a modest advantage to win on November 3.”
The survey shows Talarico with a 32-percentage point lead over Paxton in Harris County among women and an 8-percentage point lead over Paxton among men. In addition, Talarico now leads Paxton in the county among Blacks and Latinos, as well as across voters under 55. Talarico is also effectively tied with Paxton in the county among whites and among voters 55 and older.
In the Texas gubernatorial contest, 56% of likely Harris County voters support Hinojosa, compared to 40% for Abbott, 2% for Libertarian Pat Dixon, and 2% unsure.
Latino and Black voters in the county favor Hinojosa over Abbott by a large double-digit margin, while Abbott leads Hinojosa among likely Harris County white voters by six percentage points. Hinojosa leads Abbott by double-digit margins among all age groups under 55, while the two are statistically tied among likely voters 55 and older.
“That isn’t dramatic enough to cause Abbott to lose,” Jones said. “If Abbott is able to perform as well in Harris County as this poll indicates, then he should still be well positioned to win statewide, albeit by a much smaller margin than back in ’22, let alone in 2018 or 2014.”
Underscoring the lead of both Democratic candidates in their respective races, the poll shows 63% of Harris County likely voters believe things in Texas are headed in the wrong direction.
“Only 33% think the country is going in the right direction, and that ties Paxton very closely to Trump,” Jones said. “The national trends and Donald Trump’s low approval rating is really hurting Republican candidates in Harris County, especially those with a more partisan profile, like Ken Paxton and Greg Abbott.”
Harris County has been trending Democratic in recent cycles. Texas Democratic candidates have won Harris County in several major statewide races over the past decade, only to lose their elections statewide.
In November 2024, Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred beat Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in Harris County by 11.4 percentage points, but Cruz defeated Allred statewide by 8.5 percentage points. Two years earlier, Democratic former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke beat Abbott by 9.6 percentage points in Harris County, but Abbott defeated O'Rourke statewide by 10.9 percentage points.
Nevertheless, Harris County provides a significant bloc of votes that could help push a statewide candidate over the top. According to the Texas Secretary of State's Office, the county accounts for more than 2.7 million registered voters, or roughly one out of every seven registered voters in the state.
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