A pair of polls just released suggest that many of the midterm elections in Texas could be heading for a photo finish, with Republicans in danger of losing at least one statewide contest to Democrats for the first time in more than 30 years.
The first poll, produced by Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, provides the latest indication that Democrats could prevail in the U.S. Senate contest to replace Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. While Attorney General Ken Paxton soundly beat Cornyn in the Republican Party's primary runoff, Paxton has trailed Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in multiple surveys since mid-summer.
TSU's poll shows Talarico leading Paxton 47% to 46%, with 3% supporting Libertarian Ted Brown and 4% undecided. Talarico's lead is within the margin of error. Paxton holds the lead among white likely voters by 19 percentage points, while Talarico holds a 19-percentage point lead among Latino voters and a 77-percentage point lead among Black voters.
Mark Jones, a Rice University political scientist who coauthored the survey with TSU political scientist Michael Adams, said that President Trump is acting as a drag on the Republican ticket across the board in Texas.
"Normally in Texas, a Republican running a statewide race starts off with a cushion of somewhere between seven and 10 [percentage] points, but this time around Trump has effectively eliminated most of that cushion, meaning that candidate quality is now playing a larger role than it has in the past when simply having an ‘R’ next to your name pretty much guaranteed victory," Jones said.
The TSU survey found Trump's approval rating in Texas is seven points underwater, with Trump viewed favorably by 46% of likely voters and unfavorably by 53%.
"The principal factors that are dragging President Trump’s approval ratings down are a general disapproval of his performance in his job as president and his handling of policy issues ranging from the economy to immigration and border security," Jones said.
Paxton has been hampered in his general election race with Talarico by a record of political scandals, including impeachment by the Texas House of Representatives on allegations of corruption and a messy divorce trial hinging on Paxton's marital infidelities.
Another nailbiter contest is the race for Texas Railroad Commissioner, with Republican Bo French leading Democratic state Rep. Jon Rosenthal 44% to 42%, with 3% supporting Libertarian Arthur DiBianca and 11% undecided. French's lead also falls within the margin of error.
As in the U.S. Senate race, scandal is playing a role in the Railroad Commissioner contest. French is experiencing backlash from his own party to his social media posts of a photo from a University of Texas football game. The photo shows a crowd of people of color, who French denigrated, without evidence, as foreigners.
Among the other major contests, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott holds a four-point lead over Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick leads Democratic state Rep. Vikki Goodwin by six percentage points. In the race to succeed Paxton as state attorney general, Republican state Sen. Mayes Middleton leads Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson by five points.
"One thing that is important to keep in mind is that, across the board, the Republican statewide candidates tend to have more resources than their Democratic rivals, meaning that they should be able to shift some of the undecided vote to them as well as boost Republican turnout in the home stretch simply through outspending their Democratic opponents," Jones said.
That undecided vote is significant, as illustrated by another poll just released by the nonpartisan public policy research organization Texas 2036.That poll finds that one in six Texas voters is both unaffiliated with a political party and undecided how to vote with less than a month remaining before the start of early voting.
The Texas 2036 poll finds that only half of the respondents say they're willing to vote exclusively for one party, with 26% saying they plan to vote only for Republican candidates and 24% planning to vote only for Democrats.
"One of the key things that stands out to me as we break down the interests of these voters, these last ones to make their decisions, is how much enthusiasm they have for kind of the bread-and-butter issues that impact regular life," said John Hryhorchuk, senior vice president for policy and advocacy at Texas 2036. "Improving educational outcomes, healthcare affordability, energy prices, childcare — these issues really shine through in the data as the things that they themselves are saying would make them more likely to support a candidate."
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