COVID 19-related hospitalizations and deaths surged in the last week of 2023, with hospitalizations up 20% and deaths up 12%, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Flu cases also increased by more than 17% with flu deaths up by 5%.
Cases will continue to rise for at least a month, according to Dr. Jason Bowling, an infectious diseases doctor at UT Health San Antonio and University Hospital.
“It'll be rough through January, most of February, likely. And then hopefully we'll start to see some relief,” he said. “There are some people that don't expect it that are going to end up in the hospital.”
Bowling pointed to wastewater surveillance, which has indicated that the COVID virus has been spreading widely across the country. The amount of COVID virus in sewage right now is higher than it’s been since 2022.
“I think wastewater surveillance is something that we should be invested in more as a country to be more prepared,” Bowling said.
“That's where we should be investing dollars as opposed to the reaction stage, because it helps us have a little bit earlier insight of when we see cases go up, gives us a little bit of time to remind people to get vaccinated,” he added.
Because both COVID and flu are circulating widely right now, Bowling urged people to consider their risk tolerance before leaving home. If people want to reduce their risk of getting sick, they'll need to take precautions.
“The most effective way is still to get the vaccine, because even if you get infected and you've had the vaccine, you're less likely to have severe disease and it will protect some people from getting infected at all,” Bowling said.
People should also consider wearing a mask.
“You're going to get exposed if you go into a crowded public setting right now,” Bowling said. “A well-fitted, properly fitted mask will help protect people if they're going into public settings.”
There are a variety of well-fitting single-use, disposable masks on the market. Blue surgical masks don’t offer much protection. KN95 masks and N95 respirators offer better protection. Reusable, elastomeric masks may offer the best protection with a higher price tag.
If someone experiences symptoms of COVID or the flu, Bowling urges them to get tested right away. If they have the flu, they can get a prescription for the antiviral flu medication Tamiflu. If they have COVID, they can get Paxlovid. Both medications should be taken as soon as possible after infection.
“It can reduce your risk of severe disease. It also potentially shortens that time period that you're transmitting to others by decreasing your viral load,” Bowling said.
Anyone over the age of 12 can take Paxlovid. It is not being reserved for those who are at higher risk or who are older than 60. However, if someone takes it, they must ensure that they take the whole prescription, as if they were prescribed an antibiotic.
Also notable, according to Bowling, a new omicron subvariant became the dominant strain over the holiday season. JN.1 made up 61.6% of all Covid cases in the two-week period between Dec. 24, 2023, and Jan. 6, according to CDC.
“It's notable because it's moved outside of the XBB variants that we've been dealing with for the past year or so,” Bowling explained. “It's related, but it's more different than the prior variants that have been percolating for the last several months.”
Does the emergence of JN.1 change Bowling’s advice regarding testing, treatments, or vaccines? Not yet.
“As of now with lab analysis, they haven't noted any difference or impact on testing, treatments, or the vaccine,” Bowling said. “But this vaccine, this newest vaccine, was really made to target the XBB variants. And so I think that's something they're going to have to keep in consideration with the next COVID booster that they're going to come out with.”
