Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is on track to break the Republican Party's three-decade monopoly on statewide offices in Texas.
At approximately 10:04 p.m., the Associated Press called the election for Talarico, who was leading with 59.4% of the vote.
A Democrat has not won state office in Texas since 1994.
Talarico, a four-term state lawmaker from Austin, tied or led Paxton in most statewide polls starting in mid-summer. He led Paxton by a wide margin in fundraising for most of this year, although conservative super PACs allied to the attorney general offset that advantage with heavy spending on advertising in the final two months of the campaign.
Talarico first garnered attention in 2018 by flipping the heavily Republican House District 50, which had voted for Donald Trump for president two years earlier. A former San Antonio middle-school teacher and a Presbyterian seminarian, Talarico focused heavily on education issues and staunchly opposed efforts to inject religion into the public-school system. He was one of the most vocal opponents of a law requiring the display of an explicitly Protestant translation of the Ten Commandments in all public-school classrooms, which is now subject to multiple federal lawsuits.
Talarico gained national attention in a July 2025 interview on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast, followed by a February 2026 interview on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert. CBS declined to broadcast the latter interview, apparently under pressure from the Trump administration through the Federal Communications Commission, but it subsequently went viral on YouTube. That not only built Talarico's national name recognition but also transformed him into a fundraising juggernaut.
Paxton, who had never lost a race since first winning election to the Texas House of Representatives in 2002, defeated incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in a primary runoff election earlier this year to capture the Republican nomination. He was helped in securing that victory by a last-minute endorsement from President Trump.
But with the president's popularity having dipped underwater, Trump's support may have dragged on Paxton. The attorney general had expressed concern that it would do so after Trump campaigned for Paxton at the Republicans' midterm convention in Dallas in September.
Paxton also battled negative perceptions of his own record throughout the campaign related to past scandals involving his alleged corruption in office — which, in 2023, led to his impeachment by the Texas House of Representatives, before he was subsequently acquitted by the Texas Senate — as well as his ongoing divorce from state Sen. Angela Paxton over his alleged marital infidelities.
The Texas Newsroom’s James Hartley contributed to this article.