Early voting for the midterm elections begins today across Texas. Most polling in the U.S. Senate contest — including the latest statewide survey from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs, released late Sunday night — either shows Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Representative James Talarico in a statistical dead heat or Talarico in the lead.
Houston Public Media conducted a survey of listeners to ask them what issues they’re concerned about, including those that could shape the Senate contest. Their answers suggest that the contest is as much a referendum on President Donald Trump's performance as it is a judgment on which candidate would better serve the people of Texas.
"Too many Americans ... are really suffering economically"
One of the main issues resonating with voters across the political spectrum is affordability. Jerry Pollio, a business consultant based in Houston's Museum District, said he's inclined to vote for the candidate rather than the party. He's leaning toward Talarico.
"You go to the grocery store, you go to the gas pump," Pollio said, "and I just see things continue to escalate rather than, I don’t know if companies have an incentive after, let’s say after the pandemic to lower prices once again, but I just see that it’s becoming more and more of a struggle to afford everyday things."
Rebecca Trahan, a former professional athlete and Republican activist from Katy, is supporting Paxton — in large part because she feels he's responded to her concerns as state attorney general. But she's also feeling the pain of higher prices.
"What I’m thinking about, especially as a single parent, is ... about rising grocery bills," Trahan said. "I’m also thinking about the possibility of rising gas prices and how I’m going to be able to pay my bills."
Alisa Cunningham is an independent from the Clear Lake area. A retired history teacher, Cunningham said she's looking for new ideas.
"My homeowner's insurance is going up. My auto insurance is going up. The groceries are going up. The gas is going up. And wages aren’t going up," Cunningham said. "I’m having to work part time because I can’t live on my retirement. So, it’s just, something’s not right."
Then there's James Stevens of College Station, a retired construction company owner and lifelong Republican. He blames President Trump and Republican lawmakers for high prices
"There are too many Americans that are really suffering economically, and it doesn’t have to be that way, and everything they’ve done has damaged the affordability aspect of the economy rather than helping it," Stevens said. "I think the tariff situation was misplaced because the importers have simply raised their prices. We see the results of the misbegotten war, prices at the pump, the cost of shipping, the cost to farmers to produce the food that we need. A terrible mistake."
Paxton and Trump
The economy is not the only reason Stevens said he's voting for Talarico. For him, personal integrity is very much an issue.
"I would say that one of my main concerns is corruption," Stevens said. "I find it astounding that somebody like Ken Paxton would show his face in public, much less offer himself to represent the people of Texas in the Senate."
Personal integrity is also a key issue for David Nickeson, a retired physician in the Clear Lake area. Nickeson, who considers himself a Democrat, acknowledged Talarico doesn't have as much experience as Paxton, but he said Paxton has the wrong kind of experience.
"His defrauding investors, his selling the offices of the attorney general to political donors of his, his firing all his staff. So, I think he was rightly impeached," Nickeson said. "I’d say that I just am in favor of Talarico because the alternative is so bad."
For other voters, the contest is more than a question of Paxton's personal integrity. It's about whether Paxton or any Republican will be inclined to act as a check on Trump.
"The lack of due process," said Frederick Neill from unincorporated Katy, "Immigration. Changing the names on things. I don’t know where to start with Donald Trump."
Neill, a researcher at Baylor College of Medicine, said he voted for Talarico in the Democratic primary, but before that, he'd voted Republican in every election dating back to the 1970s.
"[Trump's] gathered so many Republican office holders into his sphere that it just seems like, as a Republican, I would like to just kind of restart, toss them all out, and let them go find another job, and we’ll get some more actual true conservatives in," Neill said. "That’s my goal."
That's far from the consensus among Republicans. Michael Ratke, a farmer and entrepreneur from Farwell in the Texas Panhandle, said he voted for Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary precisely because he thinks Paxton is more likely to support Trump's agenda.
"It seemed to me that that ... if you say the Republicans have the Senate and the House and the White House, you should be able to pretty much have a road map for what your policies were," Ratke said. "Clinton did it in ‘92, Obama did it in ‘08. And now here we are, the second time around, where Trump wins by a significant amount, and then yet you’ve got Republicans that are not on board with what he’s doing because — I don’t know if they don’t like him. He's brash, he’s obnoxious, but he’s very results-oriented."
"I know we need secure borders, but ... "
Ratke said his top concern is immigration and border security. He pointed to Dearborn, Michigan, a community where much of the population is made up of immigrants of Middle Eastern or North African descent, as an example of why he supports stricter controls.
"I’m not a hater. I love my neighbor. Jesus commanded us to love our neighbor, and I do, and I pray for those that ... don’t know him, but on the other hand, as a country we have got to watch and see what’s going on, Ratke said. “Things that are going on in Dearborn, Michigan, with just letting uncontrolled immigration happen there, it’s not recognizable."
Rebecca Trahan of Katy said border security is also one of her top priorities and another reason she's supporting Paxton.
"I think we are a wonderful nation of immigrants who become citizens," Trahan said. "I don’t want to necessarily lock them out, because I believe that we are the land of opportunity, but I do want some sort of a crackdown at the border. That’s for sure."
Immigration is also a concern for Fabian Gonzalez, a process technician based in rural Fort Bend County, but for a very different reason. He said his family has lived in Texas since before it became a state, but he feels that Trump's anti-immigration rhetoric and policies have put a target squarely on the backs of Mexican Americans like him.
"I’ve seen a lot of my people start voting for Republicans, and I just do not understand that," Gonzalez said. "The Republican agenda basically preaches, I think, hatred toward Mexican Americans, and I think Trump’s world has legitimized the ability to send that hatred toward, in my case, Mexican Americans and justify that."
Gonzalez said he's planning to vote Democratic. So is Carolyn Hopkins, a retired nurse from Missouri City.
"I know we need secure borders, but we also need to have respect for human life," Hopkins said, "And I think it’s not right to arrest people who are in the process of getting their citizenship, especially like showing up at a courthouse where they’re showing up to do what they’re supposed to do and then get arrested."
For Rebecca Chirak, an educator in southwest Houston, overreach by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is the prime concern. She said she's been reading a constant stream of posts on the Nextdoor social media site about ICE activity in her area.
"At this point, we essentially have poorly trained armed government thugs just profiling people and pretty much brutalizing them publicly," Chirak said. "And it isn’t normal. It should not be normalized."
Christian nationalism as an issue
Both Talarico and Paxton have made Talarico's religion a focal issue in their campaigning. Talarico, a former Presbyterian seminarian, has leaned heavily into his progressive vision of Christianity throughout his career in the state Legislature. He made his name in no small part as an opponent of legislation to require the display of an explicitly Protestant translation of the Ten Commandments in all public school classrooms — legislation that became law last year and is now the focus of multiple lawsuits for potentially violating the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment.
Talarico has argued that the sponsors of such legislation are Christian nationalists, far-right conservatives bent on writing their interpretation of Christianity into politics and law. For their part, Paxton and his supporters have accused Talarico of hating Christianity, a phrase Paxton’s campaign went so far as to put in the mouth of an AI-generated image of Talarico in one of his commercials.
"I don’t believe that there should be the Ten Commandments in the schools," Carolyn Hopkins said. "I don’t believe that you can dictate people’s behavior by having a set of rules on the on the wall. So, I think for people to think, well, if we just put these rules in place, then we can get society back to a moral compass — I don’t think that’s going to work."
That's also the view of Chad McElveen, a United Methodist pastor in the Westchase-Memorial City area, who said he's voting for Talarico.
"I just see him as being a better candidate going against Christian nationalism, while still being a Christian himself and not being against the church, but just making sure that it’s not going too far to hinder people and hurting others," McElveen said.
Copyright 2026 Houston Public Media News 88.7