Alex Mealer, the Republican nominee for Texas' 9th Congressional District, leads Democrat nominee Leticia Gutierrez by six points in the latest poll, indicating a much tighter race than Republicans anticipated when redrawing the district’s boundaries last summer.
The district, which now encompasses parts of eastern Harris County and all of Liberty County, was one of five Democratic-held districts radically redrawn by Texas House Republicans in a mid-decade redistricting push. The new boundaries include just 3% of the former District Nine constituents, which had been represented by Democrat Congressman Al Green since 2005 and covers an area that President Trump won by 20 points in the 2024 election.
Mark Jones,one of the survey's co-authors, said when Texas Republicans redrew the district it was arguably one of the safer bets they made.
But the race has become more competitive — and mentions of President Donald Trump have disappeared from Mealer's website.
"This is — of the five [redrawn districts] — the one that Republicans were second most sure that they were going to be able to win," Jones said. "Any loss on this one would pretty much be devastating to their overall goal of even having more than a modest one-seat net gain, if even that, from this election cycle."
The poll, conducted by the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs, surveyed 677 likely voters from Oct. 3 to Oct. 7. Mealer leads Gutierrez 48 to 42 with a margin of error of 3.77.
During a competitive Republican primary, an endorsement from President Donald Trump helped Mealer clinch the nomination from conservative firebrand Texas House Rep. Briscoe Cain in May. Stickers that read "endorsed by Trump" were quickly added to Mealer for Congress yard signs, but the President's favorability has slipped considerably in the months since the primary, and the Hobby poll shows Trump's approval rating among likely voters in the district at 46%.
"Trump is underwater by seven points in Texas Nine and this is a district that he won by almost 20 points back in 2024," Jones said. "So, his popularity is dragging down all Republicans."
Currently, Trump is no longer named in a list of endorsements on Mealer's campaign website. Archived pages of Mealer’s site show Trump’s endorsement was prominently displayed — including a large photoshopped image of the President next to Mealer — through at least May of this year. By September, the archives show all mention of Trump’s endorsement gone, and instead the campaign boasts support from local leaders and law enforcement
Trenton Lilley, Mealer’s campaign manager, said the reason behind the website update was because the campaign chose to invert the coloring of their yard signs.
“Our signs were up for nine months, and people go sign blind,” Lilley said.
Jones added that Trump's endorsement has still played a critical role in Mealer's lead and diverges from the president's pattern of picking candidates in primaries who then struggle in the general election.
"Nine does not fit that pattern, however, because had Trump not endorsed Mueller and endorsed Cain, then it’s quite possible that Leticia Gutierrez would be running neck and neck with the Republican candidate," Jones said. "It’s that support among women that’s really helping her have this six-point lead. If Cain were the candidate, I do not think that he would be performing nearly as well with women as Mueller is."
Mealer is a combat veteran, mother of two and owner of Veteran Welding Supply with her husband Clay in Pasadena. She ran a competitive race against Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo in 2022, using her maiden and married surnames,Del Moral Mealer. She ultimately lost the county judge race by 16,000 votes. Gutierrez is an environmental justice advocate in her first run for public office.
The poll shows Mealer picking up voters over 55, white voters, and men. Gutierrez pulls ahead with latinos, Blacks and 18 to 34-year-olds. The district is spread over Harris County where the two are neck and neck and Liberty County, where Mealer leads by 37 points.
When Republicans in the Texas Legislature initially began drawing up the new maps in their mid-decade redistricting push, Liberty County was not included in the rework of District Nine. Without Liberty county the race would be a tie.
"Now, Liberty County voters only account for a little less than a fifth of the turnout in Congressional District Nine, but since they’re leaning so heavily towards Mealer that’s enough to provide her with a cushion," Jones said.
For statewide sentiments, the District Nine survey indicates an incredibly tight race for the governor and senate. Among likely voters in the area, Republican nominee Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Democrat nominee and current State House Rep. James Talarico by just one point. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads democrat nominee and State House Rep. Gina Hinojosa by four points.
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