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Sen. John Cornyn is making the case to Republican voters that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton could put the party’s Senate seat at risk as the high-stakes runoff enters its final stretch.
Cornyn has campaigned as an experienced conservative focused on electability and maintaining Republican control of the seat, while Paxton has aligned himself closely with Trump and the party’s MAGA wing. Cornyn has argued Paxton could make a safely Republican seat competitive in November.
During a San Antonio stop on Cornyn’s Get Out the Vote tour on the first day of early voting, the four-term senator, first elected in 2002, warned supporters that a Paxton nomination could force national Republicans to spend heavily to defend a seat long considered safely Republican.
“You think we’re spending a lot of money in the primary? Just wait until the general election if Paxton’s the nominee,” Cornyn said. “We’ll end up spending hundreds of millions of dollars, perhaps in a failing race, because of a flawed nominee.”
The San Antonio event, held at The Towers on Park Lane, featured several prominent longtime Texas Republicans, including former Gov. Rick Perry, former U.S. Sen. Phil Gramm and former U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla.
The race has already drawn tens of millions of dollars from both campaigns and outside political groups, making it the most expensive Senate primary runoff in Texas and U.S. history, according to ad-tracking data and federal filings. More than $60 million has been spent backing Cornyn in the Republican Senate primary and runoff. Combined spending across both parties has surpassed $120 million in campaign advertising alone.
Cornyn said running a statewide campaign in Texas is expensive, but argued donors continue backing him because they support his record.
“It’s expensive to run in a big state, but the fact of the matter is, as I reflect on it, the people who contribute money to my campaign do so because they believe I’m doing a good job,” Cornyn said.
Meanwhile, Democratic nominee James Talarico has already been campaigning statewide while Cornyn and Paxton battle through the bruising Republican runoff. The Cook Political Report rates the seat as Likely Republican, but Democrats see the GOP primary as an opening in November.
Paxton, a three-term attorney general first elected in 2015, has remained popular with many conservative Republican voters despite years of controversy, including his 2023 impeachment trial, which ended in acquittal.
Paxton also secured an endorsement Tuesday from President Donald Trump in the Republican primary challenge against Cornyn. Paxton praised Trump’s endorsement and described the former president as “a fighter for our country and the America First movement.”
A recent University of Houston Hobby School poll found the runoff statistically tied, with Paxton leading Cornyn 48% to 45% among likely Republican runoff voters, within the survey’s margin of error. Seven percent of voters remained undecided.
Former Gov. Rick Perry told supporters the low turnout in the Republican primary showed there were still voters up for grabs heading into the runoff.
Some Republican voters TPR spoke with at San Antonio polling locations said the endorsement came too late to change their minds in the runoff.
“That endorsement means nothing to me,” said Fran Trachta.
Several voters said they had already made up their minds and believed few undecided voters remained in the high-profile race.
“The endorsement did not have an impact on my vote, but I do think it may have some impact on the far right of the MAGA movement,” said Robert Barrows.
Jon Taylor, chair of political science and geography at The University of Texas at San Antonio, said incumbents forced into runoffs often face steep political headwinds.
“When an incumbent is forced into a runoff, much like John Cornyn this year, their chances of winning are not high,” Taylor said.
Taylor said the runoff has become an increasingly aggressive political fight, with both campaigns rapidly responding to attacks from the other side even this close to Election Day.
“You see these ads where one candidate is absolutely just bashing the other candidate, and there has to be a rapid response,” Taylor said. “That drives up costs, especially in major TV markets.”
Early voting runs through Friday ahead of the May 26 runoff election.
