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President Trump is threatening to double tariffs on Mexico unless it stops a migrant caravan trying to cross the country, days after acknowledging that his deportation policies may have cost Republicans votes in the midterm elections.
More than a thousand migrants left Tapachula, near Mexico’s border with Guatemala, on Tuesday, heading toward Mexico City. Estimates of the group’s size vary between 1,000 and 2,000. Some migrants told news agencies that Democrats’ election wins had given them new hope of reaching the United States.
Trump responded Thursday on Truth Social, describing the caravan as an “invasion” and demanding that Mexico stop it or immediately face doubled tariffs. It is unclear which legal authority Trump would use to double tariffs after the Supreme Court rejected his emergency economic powers in February.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum eased the threats and said no caravan has reached the U.S. border since Trump returned to office. Sheinbaum downplayed the caravans, saying none has reached the U.S. border under Trump and that an earlier one dwindled from as many as 600 people to fewer than 100. Asked whether Mexico would use repression, she said no, describing the approach as accompaniment. Mexican authorities have broken up caravans before.
Washington has been sending out mixed signals. In a CBS “60 Minutes” interview, Trump said his deportation campaign might have been “too tough” for voters. He acknowledged that some people removed from the country had good jobs and paid taxes and suggested he could reach an immigration agreement with Democrats, who won both chambers of Congress in the Nov. 3 elections and take control in January.
But Trump has also named Stephen Miller, an architect of his immigration crackdown, as White House chief of staff. Support for his handling of immigration has fallen 9 points since May 2025, leaving approval at 38%,
For Mexico, the tariff threat brings another source of uncertainty to trade negotiations. The United States declined to extend the UUSMCA agreement at its July review. The threat also comes as Sheinbaum prepares to travel to China for next week’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Marcelo Ebrard, Secretary of Economy, Mexico will push for stronger trade and investment cooperation.
Sheinbaum says Mexico wants closer cooperation with China on renewable energy, including solar, but is not pursuing a free trade agreement with Beijing, citing commitments to the United States and Canada.
Any tariff increase would matter, especially for Texas, which traded $301.8 billion in goods with Mexico last year. The state handles about three-quarters of U.S.-Mexico land trade, according to Dallas Fed economist Roberto Coronado.
