President Trump is in Iowa on Thursday, trying to shore up support for Republican candidates in tight races for Senate, governor and three House seats.
Iowa has been reliably red in the Trump era, but Democrats see an opportunity to flip some seats as voters sour on the president and the economy.
Kay Pence cast her ballot on the first day of in-person voting last week, toting a miniature American flag and a yellow umbrella for the somewhat dreary October day in Davenport.
“Got a lot of excited people that come out even when it’s raining,” said Pence, a retired union representative and chair of the Scott County Democratic Party.
She’s not the only one eager to vote: After about a week of early voting, Scott County’s auditor logged 5,785 in-person ballots, a 90% increase from the last midterm elections in 2022.
As polls opened on Oct. 14, Pence led a small crowd of left-leaning Iowans to vote early at Saint Anthony’s Church. Susan Frembgen was among many who cited rising costs as their top issue.
“The last time I filled my tank I said, ‘This is like an astronomical price,’” she said, “and that is reflected in every product. I don’t buy hamburger anymore. It’s too expensive, which is interesting because it used to be the go-to food.”
Retired Air Force Veteran Frank Holley is a Democrat, but has voted for Republicans in the past. This year, he said he’s voting blue because of the cost of living, and because he says Republicans in Congress are too subservient to Trump.
“There’s so many things that our president is doing really on the verge of craziness,” Holley said. “I hate to say that because he’s my president and I would support him, but I can’t support the decisions that he’s making.”
Karene Nagel joined the Democratic rally, but voted for third-party candidates to protest American support for Israel’s war in Gaza. She’s not happy with either major party and wants to send a message to Democrats in particular.
“They’re not fighting hard enough,” she said. “They are only fighting for the people that are putting money in their pockets.”
Iowans share concerns with voters across the country about the economy and the Middle East, but there are also issues unique to the state.
Tracy Jones says her top issue is cancer. Iowa has the second-highest rate of cancer in the country and is one of the few states where cancer rates are going up.
Jones, a Democrat whose father died of cancer, blames Iowa’s crisis on water pollution from the state’s huge agriculture industry.
“The Republicans have had a trifecta in our state for at least 10 years now. Education’s gone down with them. Cancer rates have gone up,” Jones said. “They’ll say that they support cleaning up the water, but they don’t do anything about it.”
Polls show Democrats with an edge in Iowa, where there are tight races for Senate, governor and three of the state’s four Congressional districts. Republicans know many of the polls are not in their favor.
“I’m not feeling good,” said Kurt Whalen, vice chair of the Scott County Republican Party. “I’m not feeling horrible. I’m feeling like I don’t believe the polls.”
Whalen thinks people are underestimating how many Republicans are avoiding pollsters and the media.
“We need to have a high turnout of Republicans to be successful in this midterm election. If we show up, we win,” he said.
Whalen knows it’s typical for the president’s party to lose seats in the midterms, and that many voters want Congress to be a check on Trump.
“We have people in the Republican Party who believe that,” he said. “Look, I think President Trump has been one of the greatest presidents in American history. Has he done everything perfect? No he hasn’t. But I absolutely believe that the Republican Party — and that would include President Trump — have done far more good than harm.”
That argument is not reaching Jerry Mohr. He’s 74 years old and a lifelong Republican, going back to before former President George H.W. Bush stumped on the front porch of Mohr’s farmhouse just north of Davenport in the run up to his 1988 presidential bid.
“That’s how Republican we are,” he said, pointing to photographs from that day.
Today, Mohr says rising costs on his farm are crushing his business.
“You should be making some money. That was six months ago,” he said. “But then throw in $6 diesel and all that got thrown out the window. We’re back to treading water.”
Mohr voted for Trump in 2016, which he now calls a mistake. In 2024, he left the presidential ballot blank. This November he says he’s voting for Democrats.
“Nobody is pushing back on our President. I want to see a change where people become congenial with each other and know we’re going to have to work across the aisle,” he said. “We need to have that change.”
Swing voters like Mohr are key to winning Iowa, where Democrats are outnumbered significantly by Republicans, and even by Independent or “no party” voters.
As recently as 2020, however, “no party” voters in Iowa also outnumbered Republicans. That independent streak is why Iowa was long considered a swing state, and why elections here are often very close.
Rita Hart knows about close elections. She lost her Congressional race in 2020 to Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks by six votes. Today, Miller-Meeks is in another tight race for reelection, and Hart is the chair of the Iowa Democratic Party.
“We feel confident, but also a little nervous because you just never know what’s going to happen until the last vote is cast,” Hart said.
Iowa is still a purple state, Hart said, which is why Democrats are pitching voters in 2026 on the value of divided government.
“If you’re really working on behalf of the voters of Iowa, of the citizens of Iowa, you need to listen to the other side and take their good ideas and work with them,” she said. “When you look at just nearly any criterion, we are not going in the right direction since we’ve been under one-party rule.”
“One-party rule” has been fine for most Republicans, of course. It’s true Independents, and even some conservatives, are mad about the economy. But they may not be mad enough to vote for Democrats.
Dan Smicker is not. He’s a retired teacher and former chair of the Clinton County Republicans. He’s hoping frustrated voters look past what he calls the “short-term inconvenience” of rising costs.
“Which I understand because it’s hitting them in their pocketbook right now. I’m retired on a fixed income,” he said. “It’s also hitting me in my pocketbook, but I’m looking long term: What’s better for the government and the country rather than what’s better for me?”
Smicker acknowledged it’s a tough reelection environment for Republicans. But, he said, don’t read too much into a ‘blue wave’ in the midterms. If it happens, Democrats have to deliver, or their victory will be short-lived.
“Their one rallying cry is, ‘We don’t like Trump and the economy right now.’ And they’re selling that. And that’s fine,” Smicker said. “You might get what you ask for. If you get in power, those other problems that caused the Republicans to win two years ago are still going to be there. If you don’t address some of those problems, you could be in a much worse position two years from now than we are now.”
Back in Davenport, the Scott County Democrats have finished their rally and cast their ballots. Local party chair Kay Pence knows her work is not done. Outside Saint Anthony’s Church, she says in Iowa, you can’t just preach to the choir.
“I’ve talked to people that agree with me on every issue and they can’t vote for a Democrat,” she said. “And it’s just like, so do you vote for the person or do you vote for the party? We have candidates that are running to represent the people. And I hope that’s breaking through.”
This article was originally published on WBUR.org.
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