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President Claudia Sheinbaum is facing mounting pressure as U.S. President Donald Trump escalates rhetoric about striking Mexican drug cartels, following Washington’s military action in Venezuela and the capture of Nicolás Maduro.
Trump’s comments — including a Fox News interview in which he said the United States would begin “hitting land” against cartels — have sharpened concerns in Mexico.
While similar language has surfaced before, Mexican officials say it took on new significance after the U.S. demonstrated its willingness to use force in Venezuela, raising fears that Mexico could be next.
Those concerns prompted a direct phone call between the two leaders on Monday. Sheinbaum said Trump again proposed sending U.S. troops into Mexico. She rejected the offer and instead emphasized what she described as tangible results of bilateral cooperation: a 50% reduction in fentanyl crossing into the United States over the past year and a 43% decline in overdose deaths.
Trump also asked for Mexico’s position on Venezuela. Sheinbaum responded by invoking constitutional limits. "I told him that we have a constitution, that we are against military interventions," she said in Spanish. She added that Trump acknowledged those constraints.
On Wednesday, Congressman Joaquin Castro (TX-20), Congresswoman Sara Jacobs (CA-51), and Congressman Greg Stanton (AZ-04) introduced the No Unauthorized War in Mexico Act, legislation that would prohibit taxpayer funds from being used for an unauthorized war in Mexico.
“Trump is threatening to start a military conflict in America’s own backyard," said Congressman Stanton in a joint statement. "America's security goals must be achieved by working in partnership with Mexico, not attacking it—and certainly not without Congressional authorization.”
"My constituents in San Antonio don’t want the U.S. to spend billions in another war that risks destabilizing the region, mass migration, and human rights abuses," Congressman Castro said in the statement. "My legislation, the No Unauthorized War in Mexico Act, would protect our relationship with a close ally and prevent wasting taxpayer dollars on military force in Mexico.”
“War with Mexico — whether authorized or not —would put American and Mexican lives at risk and wreck America’s relationship with our most important trading partner,” said Congresswoman Jacobs. “Bombing Mexico won’t successfully address the fentanyl crisis or the problems posed by the cartels; in fact, it could fuel both and provoke the cartels’ retaliation against American citizens."
Mexican officials told TPR that in every call between Trump and Sheinbaum, the U.S. president has raised the possibility of deploying troops. That pattern has forced Mexico’s administration to reassess long-held assumptions that deep economic integration and security cooperation would shield the country from unilateral U.S. action.
The Venezuela strike appears to have altered that calculus. Behind the scenes, Sheinbaum’s team has been carefully calibrating its response — defending national sovereignty while avoiding language that could provoke retaliation, particularly as trade negotiations and the upcoming review of the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement approach.
Publicly, Sheinbaum has doubled down on cooperation. She has underscored continued joint work against drug trafficking and highlighted U.S. commitments to address arms smuggling into Mexico, a long-standing Mexican priority.
On Tuesday, Sheinbaum reinforced her position, warning that foreign interventions have historically harmed Mexico. She pointed to the 19th-century U.S. invasion that resulted in Mexico losing half its territory, framing sovereignty as a non-negotiable principle.
Security analyst Cecilia Farfán describes Mexico’s strategy as one of cautious realism. “Given that the current U.S. administration has publicly discussed carrying out a military strike in Mexico, the best path forward is to assume this is a possibility while actively dissuading it,” she said, adding that this posture is likely to define Mexico’s approach for the next three years.
Farfán pointed to signs that cooperation is being managed through diplomatic channels rather than public confrontation, including high-level talks on fentanyl and firearms trafficking — priorities for Washington and Mexico, respectively. She noted that U.S. acknowledgment of firearms trafficking signals Mexico’s ability to place its own security concerns on the bilateral agenda.
U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ronald Johnson described the Sheinbaum-Trump call as “productive,” calling the relationship the most cooperative and mutually beneficial in decades. But Trump later questioned the importance of the USMCA, underscoring how quickly cooperation and pressure can coexist.
Farfán points to signs that cooperation is increasingly taking place through diplomatic channels rather than public confrontation. She notes recent high-level engagement, including talks between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Mexico’s foreign minister, Juan Ramón de la Fuente, on fentanyl and firearms trafficking — key priorities for Washington and Mexico, respectively. “It matters that U.S. statements also mentioned firearms,” Farfán said.
For Sheinbaum, the challenge is to keep bringing the USMCA to the table and demonstrate measurable security results while drawing a firm line against foreign military involvement — a narrow diplomatic path shaped by Trump’s rhetoric, regional precedent, and Mexico’s own historical memory.
