As Texas takes on a bigger role in the battle for control of the U.S. House, San Antonio has an unusual number of targeted races drawing money and attention to this area in November.
So-called midterm elections are often seen as referendums on the party controlling the White House, causing its members to lose seats.
That’s why President Donald Trump had state leaders redraw the congressional maps last summer to squeeze more Republican-friendly districts out of Texas — including a new targeted district here in San Antonio. Democrats are also targeting a seat that hasn’t been on the map for years, where U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) resigned amid scandal.
“I would not be surprised to see $30 million worth of TV ads between TX23 and TX35 in the last 15 weeks [before the November election],” said San Antonio political strategist Kelton Morgan, who got his start working for former U.S. senator and presidential nominee John McCain (R-Arizona).
In non-presidential election years like 2026, all members of Congress and the Texas House are up for reelection. Though the Texas House is less likely to switch hands than Congress, two of San Antonio’s state legislative races are getting much attention, too.
So-called midterm elections are also when Texas elects its governor and other statewide officeholders — plus this year one of the state’s two U.S. Senate seats is on the ballot as well.
Texas voters typically see more action in the primary for those races than the general election, because the districts are so gerrymandered, and because the state and county are so overwhelmingly controlled by a single party.
The Bexar County Judge race, for example, likely already saw Democrat Ron Nirenberg spend far more money defeating fellow Democrat Peter Sakai in the primary than he will against Republican Patrick Von Dohlen this fall. Same with the District Attorney race for Democrat Luz Elena Chapa, who faces Republican Ashley Foster.
But experts say San Antonio has a big role to play in some major races this year, including the U.S. Senate contest between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton.
That race will see tens of millions spent in the coming months, with much money directed at voters in this area who either sat out or switched parties in the 2024 election — a critical problem to a Democrats’ chances at breaking through in a statewide race.
“The most competitive thing on the ballot is probably the U.S. Senate race,” said Morgan. “[The targeted San Antonio-area congressional races] are still drawn for Republicans. There was always an uphill fight for whoever the Democrat is on the other side.”
We’ll update this list closer to November as these races develop further.
But for now, here are the top races the reporters and editors of the San Antonio Report will be watching in the November 2026 midterm election.
1. Texas Senate race
The U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton is the top-of-the-ticket for Texans in 2026 — meaning the campaign spending, grassroots organization and messaging from these two candidates will set the tone for every other race on the ballot.
Right now Democrats are feeling good about that prospect, because their young, telegenic nominee is raking in cash to assemble the most modern and professionalized campaign that money can buy.
But they’ve also watched candidates do this and still fail for several cycles now — with Beto O’Rourke coming the closest in his 2018 race against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz — and still losing by about 215,000 votes.
Now we’re in another midterm of a Republican-controlled White House, which could offer Texas Democrats their best shot in many years at capturing a statewide office.
National Republicans preferred their odds with U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), and broke spending records warning their party that Paxton was too damaged from scandal to win a race in these conditions.
But GOP voters chose Paxton by a 28-point margin in the primary runoff — something the candidate’s supporters say means he’s best-poised to excite voters in a year where they’re lacking Trump on the ballot to help turnout.
Trump set a high-water mark for Republicans in 2024, leveraging big frustration with the border to carry the state by 13.7% points.
Those dynamics have changed some as he moved on to more controversial immigration enforcement tactics, Morgan said, but Talarico faces a daunting task winning back roughly 750,000 reliable Democratic voters who either flipped for Trump two years ago, or didn’t vote at all.
Many of them are Hispanic voters in Bexar County and South Texas, where Talarico is expected to spend much time this fall.
Meanwhile Paxton has to sew his party back together to ensure voters don’t skip out this year from lasting divisions in the primary and sinking approval for Trump.
As CNN political analyst Ronald Brownstein wrote in June, “who stays home may threaten Republicans this year as much as who votes.”
2. Texas House District 118
This Southside state House district was a blue stronghold before state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) flipped it in 2022 — a good year for Republicans.
In gerrymandered Texas, it’s one of only state legislative districts that remains competitive enough to go either way in November, and Democrats think it should be theirs now that they’re headed into favorable midterm conditions.
Their nominee, Kristian Carranza, worked on many Texas Democrats’ campaigns before running against Lujan in 2024, and she raised more money than any first-time state House candidate in Texas history.
Lujan left the seat to run for Congress this year, and GOP primary voters didn’t go along with his plan to nominate a moderate in his place.
Instead Carranza will go up against conservative Republican Jorge Borrego, an equally well-connected up-and-comer in his party, who helped shepherd Gov. Greg Abbott’s school voucher plan while working at the conservative Texas Public Policy Foundation.
Because so few districts are competitive, it’s unlikely Democrats could flip enough seats to upend Republicans’ 26-seat majority in the Texas House this election cycle.
But both state and national Democrats consider Texas House District 118 a must-win if they’re going to gain any power in the chamber responsible for drawing Texas’ political maps, and there’s national money pouring in to help their cause.
In a tough election cycle, Republicans aren’t sure if they can’t hold onto this seat, but it’s still likely to be a major battleground.
HD118 overlaps with a fiercely contested congressional district — where both parties are fighting over once-Democratic voters who either didn’t show up in 2024, or swung toward President Donald Trump.
“[House District] 118 is completely housed within [Congressional District 35], and it also includes a significant chunk of Bexar County that is absolutely critical [for Democrats in 2026],” Texas Majority PAC Executive Director Katherine Fischer said in February. ” … We need to see better turnout in that [area] in order to win statewide.”
3. Texas’ 35th Congressional District
The new 35th Congressional District is a product of President Donald Trump’s efforts to squeeze more Republican congressional districts out of Texas — by breaking up safe blue districts like the one represented by U.S. Rep. Greg Casar (D-San Antonio).
Democrats were at first skeptical about their chances in a district Trump would have carried by more than 10 percentage points.
But as the president has become less popular, they now consider it one of their biggest battlegrounds of the 2026 midterms.
Casar’s old district was turned into a GOP pickup opportunity by combining part of San Antonio with three counties Trump carried in 2024: Karnes, Wilson and Guadalupe.
That drew a lot of interest from San Antonio’s local political talent, but the GOP wound up with Carlos De La Cruz as its nominee — a retired U.S. Air Force veteran who scored a Trump endorsement in the primary, but wasn’t well-known among local party activists in Bexar County.
Roughly 70 percent of the district’s voters live in Bexar County, but De La Cruz won a primary runoff against state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) by running up the score in the more rural parts, currently represented by his sister, U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Edinburg).
His low-visibility campaign is now slowly working to introduce him to voters here for a general election.
Democrats tried and failed to recruit a seasoned candidate for this race, but they’re pleased to have at least gotten a moderate through the primary.
They’ve spent big helping a first-time candidate, longtime Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia, defeat a more progressive opponent in hopes of winning back Hispanic voters who swung toward Trump.
Morgan said it’s unlikely the campaigns themselves will matter much from here, as national Democrats line up big ad reservations for the fall and Republican money is certain to follow.
“There are some cases where the campaigns themselves are incidental to everything that’s going on, and I think TX35 might see that,” Morgan said. “What happens on the ground in South Texas this year probably doesn’t matter all that much because 10 times that much money is going to come in on TV and digital and mail from Washington.”
Whoever this district elects in November will have a big job representing San Antonio in a delegation that shrunk in redistricting, and then lost seasoned members to retirements and scandal.
4. Texas’ 23rd Congressional District
This massive San Antonio-to-El Paso district was once a top target for both parties — taken off the map by redistricting after the 2020 Census, which added more Republicans.
Now Democrats are ramping up to spend here again, even though the makeup remains far more challenging than the typical Congressional target.
Their reason for optimism is mostly due to turmoil among Republicans.
First the incumbent, U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio), was pushed to a runoff in his primary. Then a scandalous affair forced Gonzales to drop his reelection bid and resign before the end of his term, automatically making his runoff opponent, 30-year-old gun content creator Brandon Herrera, the GOP nominee.
Herrera’s attention-grabbing YouTube channel has opened him up to criticism from Republicans and Democrats alike, but he now has the backing of national GOP leaders who once distanced themselves from him.
The district supported President Donald Trump by nearly 15 percentage points in 2024, and Herrera says he doesn’t see the need to moderate or court a broader audience for the general election.
In a surprising move, however, House Democrats’ largest super PAC has already reserved ads here for the fall.
Other left-leaning groups have also piled in to help Democratic nominee Katy Padilla Stout, a former teacher and child welfare attorney who was recruited to help capitalize on a potential GOP meltdown.
“The fundamentals of this district are pretty hard, and it’s important to still be real that Katy’s in a very hard race,” said Emma Brown, a former national Democratic operative who is now executive director of the Giffords gun safety group, which is helping Padilla Stout. “But Brandon Herrera and his self-inflicted challenges have really put this race on the map.”
Gov. Greg Abbott could call a special election to fill this seat before November, but hasn’t given any indications that he plans to.
5. Texas House District 121
This Northside state House race is once again a target for Democrats, who continue to hope the GOP’s rightward shift will drive away enough moderates to put it in play.
The old Joe Straus district includes wealthy suburbs of San Antonio, which favored more business-centric Republicans.
But Texas House District 121 added some redder territory up north after the 2020 Census, and then its longtime incumbent fell to an insurgent primary challenger, Marc LaHood, who had the help of conservative groups.
LaHood, a criminal defense attorney, went on to align himself with the party’s conservative wing. He helped Gov. Greg Abbott pass his long-desired school voucher plan, bucked powerful business interests on their legal reform bills and raised money for Attorney General Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate primary.
Texas Democrats have named the race a top target in 2026, and on paper it looks like one of their best prospects.
But LaHood’s been relatively popular, and Republicans and Democrats alike say it’s a tough race.
The establishment wing of the GOP tried to push back with a primary challenge that went nowhere this year, despite much money spent on both sides.
Democrats are leaning on a first-time candidate in Zack Dunn, an assistant District Attorney at Bexar County.
Worth a watch
Texas Governor’s race: Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term, and would be the state’s longest serving governor if he completes it.
He’s a prolific fundraiser who overwhelmingly defeated Democrat Beto O’Rourke in 2022, so most of the ambitious Democrats instead looked at the U.S. Senate race this year, where the nominee will get help from national groups trying to help their party get to a majority.
Abbott faces an energetic opponent in state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin), but she’s not well-known among voters and hasn’t raised much money. We’ll check back in on this race closer to the fall.
Texas Attorney General race: With Attorney General Ken Paxton running for U.S. Senate instead of reelection, Texans will elect someone new to one of the most powerful statewide positions this year.
The state’s top lawyer has plenty of day-to-day responsibilities, like consumer protection and enforcing anti-trust laws. But in a red state, recent AGs have also used the role to aggressively advance conservative ideology through the courts.
The GOP nominee state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston) is an oil and gas heir whose culture wars at the capitol — most notably bathroom bills and keeping men out of women’s sports — have made him popular with the conservative base.
Democrats nominated state Sen. Nathan Johnson (D-Dallas), who flipped a Republican-held state Senate seat in 2018, who has been campaigning a message that AG offices are sometimes the first places where Republican power starts to crumble in red states.
Fourth Court of Appeals: This regional appellate court elected three new Republican judges last election cycle — at a time when the local GOP had completely given up on trying to flip the county’s district court bench seats.
The court is located in San Antonio, but judges have to campaign across a 32-county voting base that includes parts of the Hill County and South Texas, and has swung between supporting Democrats and Republicans in recent years.
This year a big contest is shaping up for an opening in the chief justice position, between Republican Bert Richardson, who is retiring from a higher court, and Democrat Antonia “Toni” Arteaga, who is one of Bexar County’s longest-serving district court judges.
This story first appeared in the San Antonio Report.