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When most Americans think about 1968, their minds turn to the twin tragedies of the assassinations of Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert F Kennedy Jr. They may think of the escalation of the Vietnam War with the Tet Offensive, or anti-war protests that erupted in violence at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
Few recall that it was the year the H3N2 variant of the influenza virus emerged in Asia and began a steady march around the globe. It arrived in the United States in September 1968, and by the time it settled into a less virulent, seasonal flu strain in 1970, the H3N2 pandemic had killed between one million and four million people.
H3N2 is the dominant virus so far this flu season, and when that's the case, public health experts are already on guard. Though it hasn't been a novel strain in nearly 60 years, H3N2 often packs a punch, bringing with it a more severe illness and a higher risk of complications.
This year, there's an additional wrinkle. The strain of H3N2 that was dominant during flu season in the southern hemisphere — the one that was used to formulate this year's flu vaccine — has changed. It's acquired seven mutations, according to Dr. Jason Bowling, professor and infectious disease specialist at UT Health San Antonio. It's now H3N2, subclade K.
That means this year's vaccine is a bit of a mismatch.
Fortunately, Bowling pointed out, the circulating flu is still an H3N2 strain, and surveillance in the UK has found the vaccine still offers some protection.
"For children, it was about 75% effective at reducing the risk of going to the ER or ending up admitted to the hospital," Bowling explained. "For adults, it was about 30 to 40%."
Bowling explained that these are preliminary numbers and could change, but it's a reassuring "snapshot" showing that "the vaccine is still effective."
Reassurances are welcome, because Bowling is part of a growing chorus of public health experts who are uneasy about how this flu season could unfold.
"I share that concern. I'm worried that we're gonna have a bumpy flu season," he said.
Bowling is urging everyone who can get a flu shot to get a flu shot. He blames a drop in vaccine uptake last year for the most severe flu season we've had in decades.
"We lost 280 children to flu in the United States last year. That's unacceptable. That is a record number from 2004," Bowling stressed.
The best time to get a respiratory virus vaccine is a few weeks before gathering with friends and family for the holiday, Bowling said. That gives the immune system time to build its defenses. The second-best time is now. The Texas Department of State Health Services has recorded a steady increase in emergency room visits for flu over the last three weeks, logging around 1000 additional cases each week.
For those who haven't yet been vaccinated and are at risk for severe disease or complications from a respiratory virus, Bowling recommends that you wear a mask in crowded, indoor settings. If you are or have been sick and may be contagious, stay home.
Babies too young to be vaccinated should not be around unvaccinated people. They are vulnerable to influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), COVID, and other vaccine-preventable diseases, which can have serious consequences for them.
