LEILA FADEL, HOST:
A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds President Trump is suffering politically because of the U.S. war with Iran.
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Americans, including some in Trump's base, are skeptical of a prolonged involvement. NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro's here. Domenico, good morning.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey. Good morning.
INSKEEP: What are Americans saying?
MONTANARO: Well, we surveyed almost 1,600 people with our NPR/PBS News/Marist poll over the past week. We found that 56% say that they are against the military action, just 36% approve of Trump's handling of the Iran war, and 55% say that they see Iran as only a minor threat or no threat at all. And that mirrors Trump's low approval ratings that we found on other issues. You know, Trump has just a 40% approval on immigration, which had been a strength of his. It's only 38% overall. And it's even worse on the economies, just 35% now. That's the worst we've ever seen for Trump. And despite this war, we know that people have been saying for a long time that the economy's their top concern.
INSKEEP: If you just do the math, it would seem that there must be some Republicans who voted for Trump who are not happy with his economic performance.
MONTANARO: There are some. But overall, Republicans are largely sticking with Trump. I mean, 8 in 10 approve of the job he's doing on the economy, for example, as well as his handling of Iran. You know, the reality is, look, we've seen some influencers in the MAGA sphere speak out against the war and say that Trump is doing the opposite of what he promised during the presidential campaign, but that's not the majority of rank-and-file Republicans - never has been and probably never will be. You know, what we are seeing when it comes to shifts is with independence - critical group, especially in these midterm elections, a group that Trump did well with in 2024 in the presidential election. But they've been aligning with Democrats on nearly every issue in the past year, including on this war. In the survey, 61% of independents are against the U.S. involvement in Iran.
INSKEEP: OK. That's significant. But you're saying 8 of 10 Republicans, if not more, are still with the president. Is there anything that would change that?
MONTANARO: Maybe. I mean, you can imagine that if, you know, the U.S. put in ground troops to try and install a new government, stayed for a long time, experienced significant casualties, you'd probably see these numbers move in a more negative direction for Trump. You know, the U.S. has already seen seven service members killed after a retaliatory strike by Iran and more than 140 injured. But, look, after the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, Americans have been very skeptical of prolonged U.S. military involvements overseas. The Trump administration knows this. I mean, Trump and people like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have been out there trying to tamp down the idea of nation-building or a war that would go on for a while. Even that word war is at issue. I mean, we've seen Trump use the word, quote, "excursion" multiple times to describe what's happening, and it's hardly an excursion.
INSKEEP: But when we think about the election that's coming up this fall, Domenico, ultimately, it seems, the vast majority of people go back to their partisan corners, even if they're not happy with their party or their candidate, and they vote the way they voted. We have one close election after another. So what does this mean for the midterms?
MONTANARO: Yeah. And, obviously, the key is who shows up. You know, Democrats have a higher level of enthusiasm. And in our poll, Democrats have a nine-point advantage in our poll on the question of which party's candidate are you more likely to vote for in your district.
INSKEEP: Wow.
MONTANARO: Again, with the economy being the top concern, waging war overseas certainly doesn't help Trump make a case that he's focused on the economy and that it's his top concern. You know, he's going to try to do that today with stops in Ohio and Kentucky where he's going to talk about the economy, but he rarely stays focused on that. And making matters worse for him, the war has already driven up oil and gas prices, as we've been talking about. Democrats started with an advantage in the election because of prices in the economy. Controversies around Trump's immigration policies, the Epstein files have only given Democrats more fodder.
INSKEEP: NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Thanks as always.
MONTANARO: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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