AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to hold talks with President Trump in the White House tomorrow. President Trump says he hopes to broker a ceasefire agreement in Gaza that will include the return of Israeli hostages and ultimately end more than 20 months of fighting. Israel says it's sending a team of negotiators to Qatar for indirect talks with Hamas. Anshel Pfeffer is the Israel correspondent for The Economist and the author of the biography "Bibi." He joins us now from Tel Aviv. Welcome to the program.
ANSHEL PFEFFER: Thank you for having me.
RASCOE: Do you think the Israel prime minister will agree to a ceasefire with Hamas? And if so, on what terms?
PFEFFER: Well, from everything that we've been hearing in the last few days, it seems that he's going to accept the deal as it was proposed by the Americans. And now there's a Qatari adaptation of the American proposal. And I - we - from what we - we're hearing, he'll accept the first phase, which is a 60-day ceasefire, which will include some withdrawal of Israeli forces within the Gaza strip and the release of the - apparently half of the Israeli hostages who have been held in Gaza for 21 months in return for some Palestinian prisoners. But the real question isn't over the first phase of 60 days, but whether this phase will lead to a more lasting ceasefire which will end the war.
RASCOE: Well, that's the question, I mean, because as you're pointing out, the ceasefire deal doesn't necessarily mean the war is over. Like, what are your thoughts on that? Is there an appetite from Israel right now to actually end this war?
PFEFFER: Well, Israel - in the sense of what Israelis are thinking, we're seeing in the public opinion surveys that two-thirds of Israelis want to end this war right now. There is a third of Israelis - roughly a third, perhaps a bit less - who think that Israel should continue this war until Hamas are obliterated and until perhaps - and to perpetuate Israeli occupation there, but that is a minority of Israelis.
The question is, what does Netanyahu want to do? And that very much depends on - I think on the internal politics and circumstances, both in Washington and in Jerusalem. We've seen that Donald Trump is very insistent now on getting a ceasefire. The question is, will Donald Trump still be minded to this in another 60 days? So if - as we think over the next week, there will be - the first phase will be agreed upon. There's a 60-day period during which there has to be negotiations towards the next phase. Will the American administration continue pushing Netanyahu to do that?
And then there's the question of the various political calculations existing within Israel. Netanyahu is facing, at the end of next year, an election. Maybe if the far-right parties in Netanyahu's coalition want to perpetuate the occupation of Gaza and if Netanyahu goes against them, then it may force an early election. Netanyahu has to decide whether he's prepared to fight an early election. That will be part of his calculation of whether to end the war at the end of the 60-day phase of the ceasefire.
RASCOE: This trip comes two weeks after the U.S. joined Israel and bombed Iran's nuclear facilities. Are President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu now in agreement on their approach to Iran?
PFEFFER: I think they are in agreement as far as the fact that they have the same aim of preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon or from reaching a point where it can rush for a nuclear weapon without Israel or America preventing it. The question is, will there be a need for follow-up attacks after that? If Iran does try and revive its nuclear program, Israel will be more eager to attack. I think Donald Trump will want to say, well, we've done this incredible attack with the B-2s and see what all that we've achieved. If Netanyahu were to come along and say, well, actually, we need to do some more follow-up attacks, Donald Trump may not be so eager for that to happen. And that's where we could see some tension between them. And part of Netanyahu agreeing for a Gaza ceasefire is also, I think, so he can - he hopes that he'll be able to get from Trump some kind of cooperation on further attacks in the next few months or year or two.
RASCOE: Can I ask you a broad question? You've been covering Israel and the region for years. How would you describe this moment?
PFEFFER: I think we're at - we are at a crossroads because this war in Gaza - which was begun by Hamas 21 months ago - has been dragging on, I think, way longer than anyone expected for it to be. And I think that this is probably a moment where Israel could, together with the - you know, with the American backing, find the kind of deal to end it. But it very much depends on the politics. But like I said, both in Israel and in the U.S.
RASCOE: That's Anshel Pfeffer of The Economist. Thank you so much for speaking with us today.
PFEFFER: Thank you for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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