Republicans won control of the House of Representatives in 2022 with the help of a mini red wave in the blue state of New York.
Democrats lost five seats in suburban districts, mostly around New York City, as many in the party were caught off guard. This year top Democrats across the state have joined forces to try to win those seats back, potentially netting the four seats they need to win back control of the chamber.
The GOP formula in 2022 was a barrage of ads and attacks on Democrats on crime, immigration and border security. The targeted messaging energized the Republican base and depressed Democratic turnout.
Party leaders responded this year with an effort modeled on more traditional battleground states will help turn things around for them this cycle with both resources and a stepped up ground game.
New York Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand told NPR she realized the need for the coordinated effort when she asked what candidates were doing in the week heading into the 2022 midterms and got a puzzling answer.
"There were no big rallies. There was no organized canvassing, there was no coordination at all amongst local candidates and House candidates," Gillibrand said.
Kathy Hochul, then the Democratic candidate for governor, was being attacked by her GOP opponent Lee Zeldin about rising crime rates and border security. Gillibrand says tens of millions of dollars in negative ads had a big impact on Democratic voters in suburban districts around New York City.
"We had the worst voter turnout in 10 years," Gillibrand said. Hochul won, but the wave of House losses caused Gillibrand to reach out to Democrats in Wisconsin -- a perennial battleground state -- to come up with a 2024 strategy.
"So the day after the election I said to my chief of staff: 'We have to do something differently. Let's create the first-ever coordinated campaign for New York.'"
Now, Hochul says the coordinated campaign is allowing Democrats to connect with voters in a way that hasn't been done before.
"We’re making unprecedented investments, rebuilding Party infrastructure, and turning out voters to elect Democrats and flip the House majority in November," she said in a statement to NPR.
New York Democrats model coordinated strategy on purple state campaign
Gillibrand, Hochul, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and state party leaders have opened 40 offices in seven House districts and hired 100 full-time staffers. Republicans have just five similar "battle station" offices.
Democrats linked state and local party operations. That effort has allowed them to make over 2 million contacts with voters between knocking on doors and phone calls, according to a spokeswoman for Hochul.
The strategy focuses on a more sophisticated get-out-the-vote effort, but it also includes going on offense on the issues that hurt the party the most two years ago — crime and immigration.
Gillibrand points to her first ad as an example. She says it lists "what I've done personally to make New York safer" — and touts her work on addressing fentanyl and illegal guns. Her third ad focuses on reproductive rights.
The move to lean in on crime and border issues follows the blueprint Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi used in February, to win a special election of a seat previously held by GOP Rep. George Santos. Suozzi emphasized a bipartisan immigration reform overhaul proposal, and effectively flipped the script on an issue that has traditionally put Democratic candidates on defense. Party strategists say his message is a good model in other districts in the state.
New York Republicans say crime and border still top issues in 2024
But Republicans say they still have the upper hand when it comes to the issues that got them elected in the first place.
Long Island Republican Nick LaLota is one of the five House freshmen elected in 2022. LaLota says his party will likely be outspent this cycle but says voters trust the GOP on the core issues.
"Suburban New Yorkers want two big things: a secure border and public safety and a better economy and less inflation. While they have a lot of money in campaign dollars and a lot of field offices and volunteers, their deficit is on policy solutions to those two big areas."
New York isn't a presidential battleground but LaLota says GOP nominee Donald Trump knows New York is crucial in the battle for the House. He had a rally last month. He told NPR Trump knows his campaign needs to keep House Republican seats in suburban New York.
"His presence there demonstrates that he wants a governing Republican majority to give him the policy he needs from Congress when he returns to the White House."
Marc Molinaro is another freshman GOP lawmaker whose district stretches from the Hudson Valley to the Finger Lakes. He says House Republicans are a check on an otherwise blue state.
"The people I represent want a balanced approach to government. They know that single-party rule in New York has led to the highest taxes of any people in the country, crime and an open border, Molinaro said.
State and local tax break debate playing big factor in suburban New York
But ultimately, taxes may prove the decisive issue in these New York contests. Trump’s 2017 tax bill capped a popular state and local tax break called SALT, effectively levying an increase on many New York residents. Republicans were pleased that Trump stressed at his New York rally that he’ll revive it.
"I will cut taxes for families, small businesses and workers including restoring the SALT deduction," Trump vowed at his Uniondale rally.
LaLota said that public pledge helps make the case to other GOP lawmakers as they craft a possible tax bill when many of the Trump tax provisions expire in 2025. "Way to put this on the table — this is what suburban constituents in blue states want," LaLota said.
Molinaro says the GOP has to follow through on that promise.
"If we really mean to provide meaningful tax relief to middle-class families, that's got to include reestablishing the SALT deduction."
Jeffries vows Democrats will bring back the tax break, and calls out Republicans having it both ways on the tax break.
"They were the arsonists who burned down the state and local tax deduction and they have no credibility in trying to pretend right now they will be the firefighters."
Trump looms large
Democrats argue that Trump will be a factor in the race, and that the GOP lawmakers' decision to stand with Trump at his recent rally and vote in mostly lockstep on legislation championed by hardline House Republicans will hurt them with independents and Democrats in New York.
But several GOP strategists familiar with the campaigns in these districts stress that these incumbents have worked to create their own brands, and some have made a point to call out some extreme GOP colleagues in the House.
Rep. Anthony D'Esposito, another Long Island GOP lawmaker Democrats are targeting, faces a challenge with his own personal issues taking front and center in recent weeks. The New York Times reported that he put his mistress and the daughter of fiancee on his office payroll, something not allowed by House ethics rules, and a possible campaign finance violation. D'Esposito argues he didn't do anything improper and that the story was a political attack.
Republicans hope to link their Democratic challengers to New York City Mayor Eric Adams, who was recently indicted on bribery and fraud charges. Lawmakers say his high profile case helps the GOP make their case against electing more Democrats to the House, but challengers in many of these House districts have called on Adams to resign.
Gillibrand waves off Adams as a factor in November House races. She says Democrats this year learned their lesson about engaging voters earlier on liabilities — like crime— and this new campaign focuses on the message and mechanics to get their supporters out to vote.
"Last cycle people felt depressed. This is about what we’ve accomplished, what we’re actually doing to address their number one concern."
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