STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
We have a political story from which nobody will be able to flee this week - Vice President Harris meets former President Trump in a debate. They'll be in Pennsylvania, which is widely seen as the most important state on the electoral map, and it will be covered - the ABC debate will be covered on many networks, including NPR News. To begin our coverage, we've called in two former White House speechwriters. Mary Kate Cary worked for President George H. W. Bush. Good morning.
MARY KATE CARY: Good morning. Thanks for having me.
INSKEEP: Glad you're with us. And Paul Orzulak joins us once again. He worked for President Clinton. Good morning to you.
PAUL ORZULAK: Good morning, Steve.
INSKEEP: Paul, last time we talked, you had a different candidate on your side. How different does it feel now?
ORZULAK: Well, who would have guessed that the word weird would become the biggest political word of the year?
(LAUGHTER)
ORZULAK: But that's where we are now.
INSKEEP: It's weird that this has happened, but go on.
ORZULAK: But, you know, if you watched the convention in Chicago, you saw the total change in disposition among Democrats. Instead of kind of darkness and what we're against, it was about joy and freedom and what we're for. And now the race is neck and neck, and we see surging new registration. And it's a whole new race.
INSKEEP: Although I want to note something here. Kamala Harris really improved in polling compared to Joe Biden up until the convention, and then something - I don't know if something's happened or nothing has happened. She hasn't really had a big convention bounce.
ORZULAK: I think the pollsters haven't really polled since the end of the convention and Labor Day. I think they're waiting for after the debate to see. But I think we are seeing a bounce, certainly in the battleground states, where she has sort of surged up by two or three points in a lot of these races. But everything is close.
INSKEEP: OK. Mary Kate, what do you make of the match-up, as a Republican?
CARY: I think this is going to be a fascinating night tomorrow night. I think it's make or break, for - especially for Harris. And to your point about the polling, I think just in the last 24 hours, the big New York Times/Siena poll came out that maybe some of our listeners aren't aware of, but that asked three big takeaways. What's the most important issue to you? And whatever the answer was that the people gave, open-ended, Trump led by five points as who is better on that issue. A near majority say Trump is not too far to the left or right, but nearly half say that Harris is too far to the left. And, most interesting, he's viewed as the agent of change in this election. And that's kind of a big deal because she was trying to portray herself as the agent of change - you know, moving forward, a new page, all this - and it sounds like it's not sinking in with voters.
INSKEEP: Well, Paul...
ORZULAK: If I may...
INSKEEP: Go ahead, Paul.
ORZULAK: If I may weigh in, I don't know. Is that really true? I mean, Donald Trump has sort of been in our everyday lives for nine years. We - nobody can escape his voice. And to think that he's the agent of change and she's not remains to be seen, but people, I think, are definitely going to tune in tomorrow night to see her and not so much to see him. You know, candidates...
INSKEEP: Well, let me stop you there for a second, Paul. I mean, I understand exactly the argument you're making.
ORZULAK: Yeah.
INSKEEP: It sounds like, at least in this one survey, the argument isn't working with a number of voters who see Harris, I guess...
ORZULAK: It is.
INSKEEP: ...As part of the current administration. And I've noticed, I mean, sometimes, when you interview younger voters, they barely remember the past Trump administration.
ORZULAK: I know, that's one of the things that she really needs to do, is to remind people that the end of the Trump administration was the worst economic performance in history. But they don't know her. I mean, I think that same Siena poll shows that nearly 30% of voters don't have a good feel for her, which is why they want to show up tomorrow night - to see, you know, can she go toe to toe with him? Can she attack and counterattack the way that people look for in debates, to make - you know, to understand what's important to you? What's important to the other side? We didn't think President Biden could make that case. I think Kamala Harris will make that case.
INSKEEP: Mary Kate, what do you make of Harris' efforts to lean toward the center a little bit - the most obvious case being that once upon a time, she was against fracking, and now she's for it?
CARY: Yeah. There's a whole string of issues that she has changed her positions on - fracking, the border, even plastic straws, I think, came out over the weekend. But this reminds me - a little throwback here. This reminds me, from the 1988 campaign - we called it the Dukakis dilemma. And the Dukakis dilemma was that when Mike Dukakis would talk generalities, he would be criticized for being vague. That's what's happening with her. But when he talked specifics, either he shows that he's out of sync with the American mainstream, or he has to flip flop to get - to not alienate voters. And I feel like that's exactly what's going on here - that she has these word salads, as everybody calls them, and so she's criticized for being vague. But then, when she says what she really believes, she has to flip flop, because she realized she's out of sync with the mainstream.
CARY: Let me ask you...
ORZULAK: I don't know that...
INSKEEP: Go ahead, Paul.
ORZULAK: I don't think flip flopping is very fair. I think when she was vice president for four years, she learned more about fracking, and she evolved her position. And, you know, the administration has more exports than Trump administration ever did. But I would put that a different way. It's not a question of why she evolved. It's why he didn't. Like, when he was president during COVID, circumstances changed, and he couldn't change. He told us to drink bleach, and he lost 3 million jobs. That's the kind of counterbalance that I think we're going to see in the debate. And I think the words are going to matter.
INSKEEP: I do want to get this on the table for both of you, and these are things that former President Trump has said recently in writing. On Truth Social and elsewhere, he repeated a threat to, quote, "terminate the rules in the Constitution." Just this last weekend, he was promising to arrest and imprison election officials if they get in the way of his election win, which he described as the only acceptable outcome. He has previously said he would be a dictator on day one. He's previously said before that he would terminate the Constitution or the parts of it that he doesn't like. And so I want to ask you frankly - and I'll begin with Mary Kate, just 'cause you're Republican - how can each candidate on stage address the reality that one candidate has promised in writing to violate the oath of office?
CARY: Well, let's keep in mind that he is saying this stuff, and the campaign is not. And he has this penchant for freelancing like this. And I think that's - for him to enact any of this is going to take a lot of people to help him, whether it's changing the Constitution or getting the Justice Department to arrest people, whatever it is. I really - I think he's a lot of bluster. And it goes to what Peggy Noonan wrote over the weekend.
INSKEEP: Are you saying you don't believe him? Because he keeps saying it again and again and again. He tried to overturn an election. Why wouldn't you believe him?
CARY: I just think he's a lot of - I don't know what the word is for it. He's a whirlwind, and I think that the people are not choosing him as a person. This is what Peggy Noonan wrote over the weekend. They're going to put up with the person, but it's the path they want, and the path we're on right now is so unsustainable to so many people.
ORZULAK: And...
INSKEEP: Paul, we've got about...
CARY: That's coming into play.
ORZULAK: ...I think...
INSKEEP: Paul, you've got about 40 seconds. Go for it.
ORZULAK: ...I mean, I think January 6 showed us what he's really about, Mary Kate. I think we can't spin this. He's the candidate. He does what he does as president. We saw that everything that he did the last administration - it didn't matter what others around him wanted to do. He's going to threaten all the same. This is all outlined in Project 2025, which is all his program...
CARY: Which he's disavowed.
ORZULAK: ...Like the mass deportations and other - you know, which was created by 100 members of administration, and which his vice presidential nominee wrote an introduction for the book version of it. So, I mean, we know who he is. We know what he's about. I think people are tuning in because they want a different choice, and I think...
INSKEEP: And we'll hear what happens on Tuesday night.
ORZULAK: ...Kamala Harris is going to give them that choice. It's going to be very different after the debate...
(CROSSTALK)
INSKEEP: We've got to stop the discussion there, but this has been great. Let's keep talking, guys. Paul Orzulak and Mary Kate Cary, thanks to you both.
CARY: Thanks.
ORZULAK: Thanks, Steve. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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