How Nevada swings on Election Day could tip the 2024 presidential election.
The southwest state — with two Democratic senators, a Republican governor and a quickly growing population that looks to be politically purplish — has just six Electoral College votes.
But in the race to reach 270 — and given how close the race is in other battleground states — Nevada’s handful of votes could deliver The White House to either Vice President Harris or former President Donald Trump.
In the last two presidential elections, 15 of Nevada's 17 counties voted Republican. But the two counties that didn’t — Clark and Washoe — make up almost 90% of Nevada’s population, according to Census data.
The state voted Democrat in recent presidential elections, but not by much. Voter registration for the two main parties are pretty equally split and even more are technically registered as “Non-Partisan.”
NPR’s Morning Edition is reporting from Nevada all week telling stories about the state and its voters.
Nevada’s significance
Of the six states that NPR is visiting that could determine who wins the White House in November — Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania — Nevada has the fewest Electoral College votes.
But that doesn’t mean it’s the least important state to the candidates.
Jon Ralston, founder and editor-in-chief of the nonprofit news site The Nevada Independent, said there’s a surrogate from Harris’ team in Nevada “almost every day.”
For Republicans to win the state, they’ll need to focus efforts on the two largest counties, as the 15 smaller counties voted overwhelmingly Republican in recent elections and are expected to do so again.
“While we may not be the deciding state, it's also not impossible,” Ralston said. “There are plenty of scenarios where Nevada could decide everything.”
Depending on how other key states vote on Election Day, Nevada could put either Harris or Trump over the 270 mark to win the election.
The state has a hefty chunk of people who haven’t chosen a side. Around 40% of registered voters don’t identify as either Democrat or Republican — since many were automatically registered as “Non-partisan” when going to the DMV for things such as driver’s licenses under a state law that took effect in 2020.
Some of these voters may not know — or care — that they’re registered to vote, Ralston said. Candidates up and down the ticket will have to find out whether these voters lean left or lean right in order to reach them.
What issues could drive voters to the polls?
Among Republicans, Ralston said immigration is a big concern, though Nevada isn’t a border state.
Democrats hope that an amendment protecting abortion rights that will be on the state ballot will drive their voters to the polls.
There’s bipartisan support for protecting abortion rights in the state constitution, according to Joe Schoenmann, host of KNPR’s State of Nevada in Las Vegas. Polls show that nearly 70% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats in Nevada oppose criminalizing abortion.
Economy is a top concern for voters
Schoenmann said the economy is top of mind. Most here have experienced cost of living increases since the pandemic.
Nevada also has the highest unemployment out of any state in the country at 5.4% with 6.7% in the Las Vegas area, compared to the national average of 4.2%.
With much of Southern Nevada — which includes Las Vegas — living on tips, higher prices “can really hit home,” Schoenmann said.
In addition, Nevada is growing fast — with an estimated 30% of new residents moving from California.
“They’re selling their homes in California for large sums of money. So they come here, they are buying homes over the asking price. And they’re driving up housing costs,” Schoenmann reported.
While efforts to build affordable housing for seniors are underway, he said virtually no affordable housing for the rest of the population is being built.
Farther north in Reno, KUNR political reporter Lucia Starbuck said voters are also concerned about the cost of living — everywhere from the gas pump, grocery store and paying utility bills and child care.
Healthcare access is also a big concern for rural voters. In some parts of the state, residents have to drive over an hour to give birth, to get emergency care or get specialty care, Starbuck said.
Voters feel the future of democracy is on the line
Starbuck has spoken with Democrats who are “afraid to be super public” about their politics.
“People are wanting to have civil conversations with their neighbors about politics, but really feel that they can’t,” she said.
Across the political spectrum, Schoenmann and Starbuck say Nevada voters are concerned about safeguarding democracy. Democrats have said Trump is a threat to democracy — especially in his rhetoric after the attack on January 6, 2021 — and Republicans say the same thing about democrats.
This article was edited by Obed Manuel.
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