LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Fears are growing in the Middle East of a wider war between Israel and the Lebanese political and paramilitary group, Hezbollah. Israel blames the Iran-backed group for a rocket attack that killed 12 children who were playing soccer on a pitch in the Israeli occupied Golan Heights. Hezbollah denies it carried out the strike, but the incident again raises the worry of a wider war. This all increases the world's focus on the cease-fire talks underway in Rome. Hezbollah has said an end to fighting in Gaza would also end its attacks on Israel. Let's talk through all this with Daniel Byman, who joins me now. He's a senior fellow at the Center For Strategic And International Studies. Good morning. Thanks for being on the program.
DANIEL BYMAN: Good morning.
FADEL: So, Daniel, I think what people might not understand is there is a low-level war already at the border between Israel and Lebanon with tens of thousands of Israelis and Lebanese displaced and a concentrate of fire between Hezbollah and Israel. So at this point, as we talk about the possibility of a wider war, what does that look like?
BYMAN: So a wider war would be devastating. We've already seen over 400 people in - die from this conflict. And this is something that could escalate and add a number of zeros to that. Hezbollah has a massive rocket arsenal, far more than Hamas. It has highly skilled fighters. And this could put all of Israel in jeopardy in terms of rocket and missile attacks. And the resulting Israeli response in Lebanon would be incredibly strong, and therefore, very destructive.
FADEL: So destructive for both Lebanon and Israel. There's a lot of pressure for the Israeli government to respond. Can Israel militarily deal with all-out war on two fronts?
BYMAN: Yes, but it would be exceptionally difficult. The war in Gaza has put a lot of strain on Israel's military. It relies very heavily on reserves, and some are doing a third tour in Gaza already. Israel has lost over 300 people in Gaza, as well as around 4,000 wounded. Its spare parts - its munitions - are down. So all this makes the Israeli military itself not in great shape to have a second war. Again, it could do it, but it would not be the time of Israel's choosing.
FADEL: Now, militarily, is a cease-fire in Gaza and Israel's interest when it comes to the security of Israel?
BYMAN: So in my view, yes. The Israeli military itself has almost openly said that there are limits to what Israel can achieve militarily, that if it wants to free the remaining hostages, military force may actually backfire, putting them in jeopardy and that the Israeli force needs some rest in order to reoutfit, you know, get its spare parts, and otherwise get itself back in shape. And in general, for these military reasons, there isn't much incentive for Israel to keep the fighting going at the way it is doing right now.
FADEL: Now, that's very different than what we've heard from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and also really the far right-wing parties in his governing coalition. So politically, is the government and the IDF on the same page on - about a cease-fire?
BYMAN: They're on different pages right now, and I don't want to overstate this. It's not like they are 180 degrees apart, but the Israeli military believes that the day-to-day in Gaza is less and less productive, and at times counterproductive, while the political leadership has stressed it wants to destroy Hamas completely, which is an almost impossible goal. And it's nervous that if the fighting stops, that you're going to have a lot of questions being raised in Israel about its role before October 7, that for now, at least, it wants to avoid.
FADEL: If a cease-fire happens, if the Rome talks are successful, which many people feel is unlikely, does that automatically stop the fighting in the North? Does this all come to an end?
BYMAN: A cease-fire in Gaza doesn't automatically stop the fighting, but it sure helps. Hezbollah has been pretty clear that what it's doing is in solidarity with Hamas. And because it's tried to limit the conflict so far, as has Israel, there is a belief that both sides, right now, at least, want to avoid an all-out war, and having a cease-fire in Gaza would make it harder for Hezbollah to keep things going on the day-to-day basis the way it's been doing now.
FADEL: Daniel Byman is a senior fellow at the Center For Strategic And International Studies. Thank you for your time and your insights.
BYMAN: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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